Count my outs...

[meep_42]

Here's a hand that probably looks straightforward, but I didn't think so at the time...

The button is new to the game, but I've seen her limp 37s in EP and raise a turn donk on a 4567 board when the gutter hit. So, she seems pretty loose and aggressive with hands that may or may not warrant it.
The Hijack is pretty tight (he has limped QQ in EP earlier in the session) and usually only gets aggressive with what he thinks is the best hand.
MP is a pretty standard player for this limit, and doesn't really factor in the hand.
EP is a good aggressive and tricky player who is capable of betting and raising with both draws, made hands, and bluffs.

It's a full live 8/16 game, I'm in the BB with 33.

The four mentioned limp, SB folds, and I check my option.

5 to the flop for 5SB
Flop - 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I bet, EP calls, MP calls, Hijack calls, Button raises, I 3-bomb, all call to the button who caps, all call.

5 to the turn for 12.5BB
Turn - 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I check, EP bets, MP folds, Hijack raises, Button 3-bombs...

How many outs do I have? Should I call the 3 (and potentially 4) and fold the river UI in a ginormous pot?

-d

[bsnone]

How many outs do i have?

Well if you consider any full house a winner, you have 10 outs (3 2's, 3 7's, 3 6's, and 1 3) if someone hit their st8 flush on the turn you are hosed but i'm probably willing to take my chances (especially if there is Bad Beat Jackpot potential)

There is no question that you are behind here, if the hijack is tight and he is raising on a big money street with an obvious improvement card on the turn he probably has at least Kxhearts. But with a pot that is $200 before the turn, if the action is capped on the turn you are putting in $64 to win $456 I'm willing to draw to my boat.

I fold the river UI.

[tyler_cracker]

don't you live in Vegas? where are you playing 8/16 where 4 bets is a cap?

it's hard to imagine that you have the best hand right now, but there's no reason to believe that you are drawing to 1 out or less (lol 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]). while it's possible someone has 77 or 66, the pot provides enough overlay to draw to your probably 10-outer.

i hate folding a set, but it has to be right UI, especially if facing multiple bets.

[meep_42]

To be clear, I'm not at all concerned with 54h.

-d

[Christian_Peters]

You've got significantly fewer than 10 outs, I would estimate about 6-8 (e.g. how much on average is 2 hearts worth?). More than likely, if you call 3 cold, you'll end up doing 24.5:4 on this turn - so, I think this is a marginal situation. If BTN or Hijack are Tight/Passives, I think I would fold, otherwise I would call and procede cautiously on the river.

[Christian_Peters]

[ QUOTE ]
To be clear, I'm not at all concerned with 54h.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

While it is extremely unlikely, it is a reasonable holding for loose players given the preflop action. And most importantly, it does change the value of your hand (if only slightly).

[meep_42]

Well, "not at all" is understating my concern for the hand, but it's much more of a remote possibility than 22/77/76/regular flushes.

-d

[SeaEagle]

Give yourself full credit for the case 3.
Give yourself about half credit for the remaining 9 outs to a FH.
Assume you have to improve to win well over 100% of the time.

5.5 outs means you need about 7.5-1. If the turn only goes 3 bets you have odds, if the turn goes 4 bets you're missing by just a tad.

You also have to consider that you don't have good implied odds if the board pairs. You really don't want to c/c with a FH, but if you bet out (which I think you should), you'll likely only get get raised by hands that beat you.

IMO, the turn is so close that I'd be inclined to call, fold the river UI, and b/c on a paired board. Personally, I tend to stick around when it's a close decision on large pots like this due to the pychological impact of throwing away the best hand on a 30BB+ pot.

[Mook]

Am I completely insane to suggest capping this turn? A few reasons come to mind:

(1) I think giving ourselves only 5.5 outs in this situation is needlessly pessimistic. IMO you're going to be good 85%-90% of the time if you spike a pair on the river. A cap is still not +EV by itself, but it's not a huge spew either. If you're up against 4h5h or 77, oh well, nice hand, enjoy an extra Starbucks on me. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
(2) You've already said that both EP and button are aggressive enough to be betting / raising with a wide range, and I can think of several holdings that you want EP to fold that he might have bet but might just fold for 3 BB cold back to him. If he folds 76, you've just bought yourself 4 outs in this enormous pot for 1 measly extra BB.
(3) Also, b/3b the flop and c/r'ing the turn absolutely screams "I've got a monster!" You may get a slightly better hand to only call, not raise, you on the river if you bet out when pairing up (which I agree you should).
(4) Someone's gonna cap this turn about 98% of the time, so since no one's folding here anyway it might as well be you. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Disclaimer: None of the above applies if the cap is 5 bets. In that case, I just call here and curse my luck as I muck when the river doesn't pair me.

Mook

[atnels]

I've never seen a bad beat jackpot where full houses qualify....