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  #41  
Old 12-01-2007, 02:43 PM
MicroBob MicroBob is offline
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Default Re: the proof is in the pudding

I had a run where I was winning 17BB/100 over 100+ hands on limit poker where the supposed max sustainable win-rate is around 2 or MAYBE 3BB/100.
Obviously I have proven these claims of max win-rate of 2BB/100 to be horribly incorrect.
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  #42  
Old 12-01-2007, 03:12 PM
psuasskicker psuasskicker is offline
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Default Re: the proof is in the pudding

Can someone do the math for me on how it could be profitable to lay 3:2 on 60 out of 100 picks? No terms were stipulated, but let's say a normal betting pattern, no passing up slight EV+ to maintain the higher edge. Also assume the tout isn't close to his brag, but that he's an EV0 or EV+ bettor in the 53% win range.

Seems like 3:2 is a lot to lay in such a situation, but I'm frankly too lazy to do the math, but if someone's saying they'll bet $15k on it, I'd at least hope they'd have done some math behind it...

- C -
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  #43  
Old 12-01-2007, 03:13 PM
Performify Performify is offline
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Default Re: the proof is in the pudding

[ QUOTE ]
It's funny - perf's avatar shows exactly how I imagine him as he moderates this forum. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]


[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I put it together for that exact reason.

bigger version:

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  #44  
Old 12-01-2007, 03:15 PM
NajdorfDefense NajdorfDefense is offline
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Default Re: the proof is in the pudding

21-10-1 in 2p2 college bowl picks last year, won 4 of last 5 year before that only loss due to over 3ot PSU game with multiple missed XPx and chip-shot FGs, won both PotY. 25-11 is like 69% over a solid sample of bowl games over 2 years!

I want my autographed key to the Forums, dammit!


...or at least an E:60 segment about how i pwn DrBob during bowl season.
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  #45  
Old 12-01-2007, 03:27 PM
pirateboy pirateboy is offline
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Default Re: the proof is in the pudding

My first posting in SB was last year for NCAAF Week 1. I went 8-0? Anyone remember that? Obviously I am a 100% capper.
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  #46  
Old 12-01-2007, 03:38 PM
gila gila is offline
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Default Re: the proof is in the pudding

You too? I started the season 2-0. Although I am like 45% since, but hell, I will stick with the 100% capper, it sounds better on my resume.
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  #47  
Old 12-01-2007, 03:43 PM
MicroBob MicroBob is offline
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Default Re: the proof is in the pudding

the sports-betting sites rig it so that the noob-fish win their first few bets in order to give them confidence and get them hooked.
After that they can rig the games against these bettors because they will be re-depositing anyway.
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  #48  
Old 12-01-2007, 03:58 PM
wiper wiper is offline
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Default Re: the proof is in the pudding

this.....is an awesome thread.
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  #49  
Old 12-01-2007, 03:59 PM
bills217 bills217 is offline
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Default Re: the proof is in the pudding

Honestly, I have no idea what my win % is, because, well, IT DOESN'T MATTER. I prefer not betting WA lines anyway - it's a lot easier that way.

I bet sports for $$$, not Internet Forum Win % Brag Points.
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  #50  
Old 12-01-2007, 04:02 PM
bills217 bills217 is offline
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Default Re: the proof is in the pudding

btw, either tlt takes some action or gets banned for hating money. This forum is no place for money-haters.
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