High Stakes Poker thread (10/29 - spoilers possible)

[Flip-Flop]

Recap:

JMan...well..I don`t have much to add, except that his entertainment value went up a notch because the James-Woods-like-noob-ninja-muck made me lol so hard that I almost shed a tear of joy.
I`m glad (for his sake too) that we wont be seeing him on HSP ever again.

Brandon Adams? No thanks.

Eli...no comment.

Jamie somehow managed to annoy me a lot less this season.
He looked and played comfortable and even made few good decisions along the way. Imagine that.

Hellmuth is such a bad cash game player is not even funny.
The 150k PF raise with KK says it all.

I never minded the Harman nitness because she`s a woman, cute and good contrast for all the psychos we`ve seen on the show in 4 seasons.

Daniel looked card dead again but I can`t imagine any good poker show without him.

Sammy was entertaining as always.

All in all very dull couple of episodes and I`m glad it`s over.

The 500K game looks very promising although I could think of few players that I would like to switch with someone else.
Putting the circus fish in this game was imo an excellent idea and I can`t wait to see him play.

[spintronics929]

[ QUOTE ]
That insurance deal at the end was a mess. Phil came up with about the right odds of 4.5-1, but did so in a totally incorrect way. The way he phrased it made it sound like he was not taking splits into account, because he said 36 to 8 (actually 37-7), which are the odds he will win or split the pot. It seems like Brandon could have made Phil pay out the 12k, because their agreement did not say anything about what happens in a chop.

The real math is 44 unseen cards, 31 win for phil, 7 for eli, 6 chop. So really the odds are 31-7 instead of 36-8, which is still about 4.5-1. So if they ran the river 44 times, phil would pay $372k, and collect $336k. So he paid about $947 in ev, not counting the splits, for the insurance.

[/ QUOTE ]

In practice, it's not the 31:7 ratio that we should be using since Phil asked people who were playing the hand (let's assume that these other players can remember their cards). So basically, we should eliminate the two cards, which give additional info, of the person taking the bet. And also, we should take into account the cards that chop (6 cards).

29:7 (no 9's or J's, no chopping cards)
30:7 (no 9's or J's, one chopping card)
31:7 (two chopping cards)

30:6 (one 9 or one J, no chopping card)
31:6 (one 9 or one J, one chopping card)

31:5 (both 9's and J's)

Now on to the meta-analysis for this particular hand. From Brandon Adam's point of view, he observed that Farha didn't instantly take on the insurance bet. Thus, in some ways, he would be correct assuming that Farha didn't have a 9 or a J in his hands (this isn't correct, which makes us question Farha's math skills since we know he has balls to make bets). And if Adams did not have a 9 or a J (and no chopping cards), he would actually be a 27:7 dog here. So the interesting question is, did Adams make a correct move here if he didn't have a 9 or a J or chopping cards?

[oldmangrimis]

[ QUOTE ]

The real math is 44 unseen cards, 31 win for phil, 7 for eli, 6 chop. So really the odds are 31-7 instead of 36-8, which is still about 4.5-1. So if they ran the river 44 times, phil would pay $372k, and collect $336k. So he paid about $947 in ev, not counting the splits, for the insurance.

[/ QUOTE ]

is the EV diffrent with 6 card that can chap odd are EV are 34-10 or am i wrong

[JDesab]

Jman... first of all

i like this player.

i like his table image. if i'm sitting there.. he comes across as friendly... yet a bit shy. the right amount .. as if he's giving his respect to the players at the table. when DN talked to him a bit about being his agent he didn't jump into the conversation, but i don't think anyone took this as being rude just that he was new to the table and finding his spot. he is a friendly looking kid and i'm sure that the players wanted him to get comfortable with all of them.

hellmuth referring to him as a nit was not derogatory, in as much as he was making a spot for galfond among the table. i can't believe that i'm in such a minority that i play live. you assign nicknames to people and stereotypes. often you do it to get a reaction from the player. you're inviting him to speak about himself. you're trying to learn about him. galfond did exactly how DN read him. he offered no information. galfond, at that table was a mystery. he showed two hands..both pocket pairs... his image was that of a very tight player.

now... the T7 s hand.

i will say that i dislike this move. of course if he decided that he really wanted to play the T7 some say that raising it up with the hand is the best way to play. i disagree, from early position i would only raise with a hand that i'd have no problem making a continuation bet without improving. obviously jman was not committed to this move so i think he made a mistake in raising. i'm sure that he didn't want 5 callers... maybe that was the major impact on him checking the flop AK7. can't really blame him for that. if he had been in late position perhaps he would have taken a stab.


as the river goes checked... i "think" that jman should start believing that his 7 could be good. obviously he was sold on the fact that he couldn't possibly have the winner so he mucked. no biggy. it does happen live. we've all made that mistake and we say "ouch" and move on.

this one action by phil does not make him a donk or anything else.

it was not a hand that will further the image that all of you internet fans are portraying that the guy is a poker god. it also does not cement him in as a donkey either. it does further the argument that on that day, jman had no reason to leave the game and run his mouth about how he'd love to take on one of the established pros and assume he'd break the guy. that post from jman was out of line ... and maybe some of you are starting to see it.

imo internet success comes from multitabling and playing the nuts. your winnings are multiplied by the number of tables times the amount of easy money you can make off of mistakes by worse players than you. online he's intimidating.. the people he's playing against are not intimidated.

i actually see less wrong with his T7 hand than any of the two hands he's played before.



i think that there are interesting questions that have arisen as we watch him play though.

he says he had 710,000 available on that day. he was saving 500k for the next day as we all have read.

would jman not have been better served to put about 200 to 250k on the table? this would have afforded him some room to play.


was he concerned with going broke?

-you folks surely have a better read on this player than i... but the idea has come to me that the amount he brought to the game was likely a huge percentage of his bankroll and he was playing to protect it. that would explain a lot.

he was on HIGH STAKES POKER .. even you self absorbed internet players have to admit that playing on that show is a hell of an honor. perhaps he was content to get his mug on the camera's and the rest was gravy. I'm sure that he had it in his mind that he didn't want to lose.

perhaps we can take him at his word that he was really just filling time til the next day when he planned to really play.

note: i have only watched the first hand so far. i have not finished the episode yet.

[Shanemex]

The ev of the pot is 34-10, but apparently the bet was only for hands that weren't chopped. So the only time a bet is made is when one of the 38 cards come that don't result in a chop. And on average Phil will lose $947 on the bet.

I understand that the math is different because the people who he is making the bets with knew what cards they had in their own hand, but if Phil is going to make these bets with people in the hand then it his own fault if he loses even more than the juice he gives.

[JDesab]

how can you not like the way sammy plays??

the k9 hand against Hellmuth, good poker. don't you think?

you hear the interview with Sammy. what is there to argue in what he says.

yes, he was bleeding 2 or 3 shows ago. yes he is loose. but he plays well.

[JDesab]

this forum would HATE Mike Matusow if he had played while jman has been on.

there would have been at least one time that mike felt compelled to put his right thumb up in the air like a hitchhiker and say "kiddy games down the street boys!" ... then the mouth bashing would commence.

[JDesab]

wow.. the hand with DN vs Gold .. KT vs 47 ... after the hand the look on DN's face and the eye roll by farha with the affectionate tap of Jamie's hat. priceless!

[JDesab]

liberty of brandon adams came in and stole the deal away from mutual of sammy and offered phil the 4:1 he wanted.

if brandon adams ever goes to houston he won't be staying at sammy's house.

GOOD STUFF

[JP OSU]

JD, there are so many things wrong with the long post above that I don't even know where to start...