NL400: Overpair on monotone board

Arito · #1 08-10-2007, 07:47 AM

I've been having a discussion with two pokerbuddies about this hand, and am wondering what all you guys think.

The game is 5-handed (6-max), effective stacks are 400 and you are UTG and have:

K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

You raise to 14. Folded around to the BB (16/10/1.83 over 118 hands) reraises to 44. You rarely 4-bet so you call here.

The flop is:

T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He bets $65. You...

danjohncochane · #2 08-10-2007, 07:52 AM

I think i just call this and see what the turn brings. Your only really ahead of QQ/AK and if he has a club hes sticking around. I think a raise will induce a re-raise from him an awful lot of the time. Since hes a nit he'll have you beat here often.

NaobisDad · #3 08-11-2007, 05:53 AM

Hey, Arito. I'm calling or folding. Calling if villains range is rather wide and he's likely to bluff a blank on the turn. I'm folding otherwise.

I'm pretty much giving up on any club.

hardkAre · #4 08-11-2007, 06:14 AM

Start 4betting more frequently

As played call and get it in on a safe turn

Big_Jim · #5 08-11-2007, 06:18 AM

PF is mega standard vs this guy.

Usually commit on a safe turn, but sometimes bail out when it feels right.

Arito · #6 08-12-2007, 04:42 PM

Okay, I guess pretty much everybody in the world disagrees with me, because I believe that a raise/push here is perhaps slightly better than calling and folding. I realize that not many worse hands are going to call you (although any Ac, AQ, and QQ probably will. But those hands, except QQ, are unlikely to get threebet by a villain with 16/10 stats) and pretty much all better hands are not folding.

However I really feel that we have the best hand here the majority of the time, and even though the direct EV of a push seems negative, I believe it is better than giving villain a 'free' chance to make a better hand, or the ability to push us of our hand on the turn (especially if a scare card falls).

I'm wondering, would your advise change if the flop was T62ccc?