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#12
06-03-2007, 04:09 PM
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Re: 3 and 6 with ian j
[ QUOTE ]
Does this guy read your posts? Because if so it doesn't really matter how you've been playing. [/ QUOTE ] ... Okay, this made me sound like a dick. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] However, I'm curious as to how accurate it is. If I'm wrong then I'd appreciate knowing that I'm wrong. But I'd assume that an excellent player (BK) plays like an excellent bot (that is to say, tiltless) and that therefore whatever you see in the short term from BK shouldn't be much consideration. Like, if I saw him fold for two hours in a row or something, it doesn't mean I'm going to start stealing his BB light, for example... But am I wrong? Should I steal light in that spot? I don't know, BK please answer? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] --Dave. 
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#13
06-03-2007, 04:33 PM
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Re: 3 and 6 with ian j
Nice meeting you yesterday BK. I'd check/fold this river and figure that most of the time Ian checks behind with 99 and below. I don't see Ian ever making a mistake here and calling your river bet with anything you beat. I also don't think he'll bet on the river with anything less than AK. The one hand he might have here that calls a bet on the river is AJ but I think he rarely 3 bets your UTG raise with this hand.
I think Ian may have had AK this hand and decided to keep the pot small when the J showed up. In real life I'm sure I'd bet cuz I have two queeeeeeenns unless I'm playing well.
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#14
06-03-2007, 04:52 PM
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Re: 3 and 6 with ian j
He's going to have an underpair (77-99) quite a lot here. Other hand combos are possible: AK, certainly, as well as KQs, AJs, the other QQ, and *maybe* AA. But if you run the combos through, I think like 50% of his range is those underpair hands that just gave up once the third broadway card hit on the turn.
If you bet, you're really only getting called by better hands, with AJ the possible exception. So a check seems in order, and I really think you need to take your lumps and call just because he has a lot of hands that he'll need to bluff with. This is especially true, BTW, if he thinks you'd peel this flop with like 99. He also should value-bet with QQ if checked to, which contributes to your equity slightly (*maybe* AJ too, but I'm not banking on that).
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#15
06-03-2007, 08:02 PM
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Re: 3 and 6 with ian j
Value-check town.
Devo
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#16
06-04-2007, 02:45 AM
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Re: 3 and 6 with ian j
How cap you not 4bet Preflop?
Are c/r any non A,K flop? I'm going to assume this is the play... I'm assuming this game plays way softer than the stars 30/60 FR... I'd bet there so I'd bet here. I don't think he can raise with air, because of his 3bet range, doesn't really include air. AJ+,77+ However I think you may recieve a thin calldown. JT
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#17
06-04-2007, 04:53 AM
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Re: 3 and 6 with ian j
Kaybear is correct...Ian doesnt bet anything you beat except AJ occassionally and he will only pay off with AJ here and that will only be ocassionally too.....chk call or chk fold, but betting against Ian here is -EV.
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#20
06-04-2007, 11:06 PM
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Re: 3 and 6 with ian j
I will never understand limit if people are actually saying that villain will not bet turn here with AK(and is his most likely hand) and some even advocate folding QQ here.
Seems like this would even be easy valuetown with QJ on the river. Just wondering if c/r c/c or lead is the best line.
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