A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio

[Hock_]

Am I the only one who hates the flop raise? I'd way rather build a huge pot here than possibly maybe clean up outs.

[andyfox]

Wouldn't he be likely to bet the turn, when checked to, with Qd-Jd, Qd-Td, or Jd-Td? Wouldn't he also have possibly 3-bet the flop with a flush draw? Also, from his standpoint, isn't Mike's most likely hand a flush? And if he's the type of player who would check behind on the turn despite improving, is he likely to raise the river without the nut flush?

[tpir]

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Am I the only one who hates the flop raise? I'd way rather build a huge pot here than possibly maybe clean up outs.

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I think the flop raise is the best part of the hand.

[baronzeus]

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Wouldn't he be likely to bet the turn, when checked to, with Qd-Jd, Qd-Td, or Jd-Td? Wouldn't he also have possibly 3-bet the flop with a flush draw? Also, from his standpoint, isn't Mike's most likely hand a flush? And if he's the type of player who would check behind on the turn despite improving, is he likely to raise the river without the nut flush?

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well, we have to pick either one or the other. if he's betting the turn with QTdd or JTdd or QJdd, then he's CERTAINLY betting the turn with a set, king, trips, overpair, whatever he has. and if he is good enough to 3bet the flop with a flush draw, he CERTAINLY doesnt check behind the turn with any of the hands that we lose to.


i think mike's line can be a lot of things. given all the action, mike could just be wussing out with a king on the turn after getting all that action. and yes, i agree that its odd for him to raise the river here, but a lot of players think "OOH FLUSH RAISE" rather than "I wonder what my opponent is betting with?"

[stinkypete]

with A8s, bet/3-bet/call is the correct river line. always.

[andyfox]

"if he's betting the turn with QTdd or JTdd or QJdd, then he's CERTAINLY betting the turn with a set, king, trips, overpair, whatever he has."

I'm not so certain. I know lots of guys who get "tricky" with a monster, but who push smaller hands.

[surfdoc]

You really need to tell us about this KMS character. Is he a thinking player? There are times when slowplaying will be the way to go but I really doubt a thinking player checks a boat when it is so likely that a flush draw is out there and will so willingly put in a turn bet but not a river bet when missing.

Therefore, my opinion is that if he is not good I just call. If he is pretty solid I think it has to be a 3 bet.

Mr. Gatorade: your thinking about metagame is admirable but getting an extra BB here will be too important to pass up. Weak tight mike l will just have to play a few orbits and then unleash out of control mike l to have the same effect and more profit.

[BWebb]

Mike,

I don't post in this forum often but I do lurk quite a bit and am familiar with your play from previous posts. Because of this I think MrGatorade is 100% correct, even though it might not be the most +EV thing to do on this particular hand.

[DcifrThs]

mike,

on the flop you're getting 15:1 and will be laying 8.5:1 against hands behind you if you raise. you wont be folding out any Ks and any pairs that would come along for one (and not raise) will likely fold to a turn raise when they would have folded on the flop shoudl you choose that line.

the pot is big and you have a large number of outs. you would like to grow this pot on the flop since K4 and 44 are very unlikely combinatorically and KK is the only real hand that has you in significant trouble and only 1 person is likely to have that hand. if you call and somebody raises behind you and it's called to you id 3 bet now b/c of the chances you are dealing with disbelieving flop peelers who may now feel stuck.

while you have likely increased the chances of your being in some danger, i dont think that warrents not 3betting when it comes back for a raise.

further, by just calling this flop and showing down the hand, the better players in the game will be less likely to think you do what you do (go mad bets in position w/ draws) since you didn't even put in 2 bets on a favorable nut flush draw w/ overcard draw 7 ways.

the real danger w/ just calling though is letting a weaker hand come in that would have folded for 2 but now pairs up and sees a showdown. but that is a mighty big parlay and i think the benefits to just calling this flop outweigh the costs.

on the turn if the sb bets again NOW you should raise. this looks like a very strong hand and you are now quite a bit more likely to fold out a K than the almost nil chance of that happeneing on the flop. you've managed to lay way worse odds given the bet size increase and have misguided the table as to your holding.

in a 3/6 lineup, id say the flop call turn raise line is probably best.

Barron

[mike l.]

i like the idea of call-3 betting the flop normally, but since the pot is already huge and getting a better A out is so easy to do in this particular case/flop, i still like my flop raise as the best line.