Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!

[guilt_trip]

[ QUOTE ]
It's because they're afraid of getting criticized in public if they do anything that could lead to an immediate loss. As I was watching the game, I was thinking "The Cardinals should go for it here" but you are the only other person I've heard say this, and you can bet that if they'd gone for it and gotten stuffed, every armchair coach in America would be all over it.

To be fair they have a slightly better than 50% chance of winning in OT because they're a better team than the 49ers but it's obv nowhere near 70%.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the crux of it all. Losing in OT brings alot less heat than if you run 4th&1 and get stuffed. The standard is "Go for the kick, play OT" and I doubt there are many fans that know the relative %'s for each situation so I doubt its an obvious decision to them all.

Infact there is a concensus among some that you shouldnt ever punt in your OPP half considering all of the factors of it all. A high school team in Texas actually never punts unless its a completely hopeless coversion attempt

[Jurollo]

I really dont mind going for wins in the NFL rather then ties. Especially with the NFL's retarded OT system where it is extremely feasible that only one teams offense touches the ball.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I really dont mind going for wins in the NFL rather then ties. Especially with the NFL's retarded OT system where it is extremely feasible that only one teams offense touches the ball.

[/ QUOTE ]


exactly.
If he fails when he tries it then he just says, "look...I thought we had a good chance of making it. We were practically on top of the goal-line so lets finish this right now instead of relying on the coin-flip."

Fans would totally buy this imo.

[MicroBob]

"Losing in OT brings alot less heat than if you run 4th&1 and get stuffed."


I still really disagree with this.
These guys are under tremendous heat as it is. Many of them are going to get fired within 1-3 years anyway.
If they actually understood the math they would go for it in a heartbeat and wouldn't give a crap what the idiot fans have to say.

All these guys hear ALL the time is how they should pass more...no wait...you should run more...no wait, why do you have your punter kick like that when it's clearly better to aim it towards the sideline...etc etc.

They hear all the "expert" telling them the most non-sensical idiotic crap over and over and over again. They aren't completely immune to it.
But they aren't total brainless dweebs who are just making play-calls all game long based on what will get them the least amount of heat from their fans.

They are very much trying to win the game and if they do they know the fans will follow...and if they don't then the fans will turn against them.

I really think the impact of the fan criticism on such decisions is being somewhat overstated here.

[CharlieDontSurf]

[ QUOTE ]
"Losing in OT brings alot less heat than if you run 4th&1 and get stuffed."


I still really disagree with this.
These guys are under tremendous heat as it is. Many of them are going to get fired within 1-3 years anyway.
If they actually understood the math they would go for it in a heartbeat and wouldn't give a crap what the idiot fans have to say.

All these guys hear ALL the time is how they should pass more...no wait...you should run more...no wait, why do you have your punter kick like that when it's clearly better to aim it towards the sideline...etc etc.

They hear all the "expert" telling them the most non-sensical idiotic crap over and over and over again. They aren't completely immune to it.
But they aren't total brainless dweebs who are just making play-calls all game long based on what will get them the least amount of heat from their fans.

They are very much trying to win the game and if they do they know the fans will follow...and if they don't then the fans will turn against them.

I really think the impact of the fan criticism on such decisions is being somewhat overstated here.

[/ QUOTE ]

right now Neil Rackers and Kurt Warner are taking heat/blame for Cards loss.

If Wiz goes for it ala Pete Carroll and misses...he gets all the blame.

[Billy Bibbit]

MicroBob,

Most people aren't used to thinking about EV the way poker players do. I don't think it ever occurs to most coaches to compare probabilities in the sense of "We win 70% if we go for it and 55% if we attempt a field goal." They just do what other people have told them is best, be it reporters, other coaches, or whoever. When a coach gets ripped apart for getting stuffed on fourth down I'm sure it discourages other coaches from going for it in the future.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
They just do what other people have told them is best, be it reporters, other coaches, or whoever.

[/ QUOTE ]


They do what they have learned in the game via playing and other coaches. They are mostly following their hunches.

Anything that any reporter has told them or asked them in the past has very little influence. I think you don't quite get how little these coaches think of these guys' opinions or input.

I agree that they aren't familiar with thinking in terms of EV, etc etc. He was just playing a hunch here that to play it safe and go to OT was best and didn't even think about the percentages or the numbers. But his crappy decision had almost nothing to do with reporters imo.

[vhawk01]

[ QUOTE ]
It's because they're afraid of getting criticized in public if they do anything that could lead to an immediate loss. As I was watching the game, I was thinking "The Cardinals should go for it here" but you are the only other person I've heard say this, and you can bet that if they'd gone for it and gotten stuffed, every armchair coach in America would be all over it.

To be fair they have a slightly better than 50% chance of winning in OT because they're a better team than the 49ers but it's obv nowhere near 70%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Making the FG isnt 100% although its close, but it probably erases a lot of the edge the Cardinals have. If its the Pats or something it might start to become relevant, although probably still not.

[gusmahler]

[ QUOTE ]
It's because they're afraid of getting criticized in public if they do anything that could lead to an immediate loss.

[/ QUOTE ]

How true is it that they will get criticized? I don't recall any criticisms in the earlier Cardinals games I mentioned (though they succeeded both times).

To recap those situations, in the Rams game, the Rams were penalized on the last play of the first half. So the Cards were given a free play from the 1 yard line. Instead of kicking a FG (which I think most coaches would have done), AZ went for it and scored a TD.

In the Skins game, the Cardinals had 4th and goal from the 1 with 6 seconds left. Instead of kicking the FG, they went for it and scored a TD.

How many times this season has an NFL team been in this type of situation (or the PAT vs. 2 pointer situation) at the end of the 4th quarter and gone for the tie instead of the win?

[kidcolin]

According to Easterbrook, Herm got slammed for not going for the tie.