$16 turbo is this totally standard, or totally terrible?

[WutRUTryin2Hit]

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first of all it would be nice if you stop beeing so aggro kyro.Seriously thats so misplaced here.I really wanna have a constructive discussion here.Let me recap the situation:
The UTG player limped very much before and check/folded flop previously or folded to a raise.
Let assume he calls the shove in 10% of all cases , which is absoloutly optimistic,since i he limped with so many medicore before that I even think 5% is more realstic,but lets do it with 10%?

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This is way off. I agree the UTG is not calling as much as CO, but 5 and 10% are way off. I'd put the real number much higher, this is a $16 turbo, and you see some crazy things in them now and then. I think he is calling way way way more than you think.

[WuTank]

hm I get what you saying but calling wider than 90% or even 95%?

[allhappythoughts]

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Wow, I'm totally flabbergasted at the CO calling %. I think he calls closer to 90% based on what happened previous & his current stack. We all see some habitual limp/folders shorter than this but in a more random situation, he is almost always calling.

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I think that hits the nail on the head. I wouldn't be surprised if it were more than 90%. Even if it isn't, you get called basically 100% of the time by someone in the hand. You're going to have to play this hand all the way against someone 99.5% of the time, and what if BB or UTG call? Or if it's a multiway? Then you're really screwed. I understand what you're trying to do, but you have basically no FE and are risking your tourney life on a pot that is only offering you okay odds. You also have an okay sized stack too, and the blinds have just hit you so you can just fold and find a muuuuch better spot. Way too many people have entered the pot, it's just too dangerous.

[darom03]

Ok guys!

Stop with this talk of CO calling 90%!

That is just insane and totally random.

Instead look at his range, and determine what hands he could be limping with.

A typical estimate would be like any pair up to 88 (and AA for trapping), any small ace up to A9 and any broadway. But he will also limp with any connector down to 67o and all suited connectors in the deck.

Throw in some random Kx hands and suited J9, Q9, QT og T8.

That leaves you with more than 10% of hands that will have to fold, even if CO thinks SB is bluffing.

He cant call with 67o or J9o. The only hands he can call with are pairs, aces and broadway hands. That is a lot, yes, but not nearly 90% as some of you are postulating.

75% max, and probably less.

[ymu]

UTG probably has a similar range. If they both call 70% then it's 0.3*0.3 = 0.09 that neither of them do.

[Ocean613]

darom03 I think your range for CO is way off. He has 925 and the BB is 200. After the limp he has less than 4BB.

"But he will also limp with any connector down to 67o and all suited connectors in the deck. Throw in some random Kx hands and suited J9, Q9, QT og T8."

Unless CO is a complete donk he is not limping with almost any of these hands. Nobody is playing speculating hands with 4BB.

Any hand CO is limping here is a hand he is at least 90% willing to get AI with.

Just my opinion.

[Ocean613]

For OP, I think this is a bad play. No reason to risk so much in this spot with such a weak hand and a high likelyhood of being called.

Also I think one thing being overlooked is that UTG and CO are both limping into the Big Stack's BB. If they are thinking players at all they should realize they are being pushed over an extremely high % of the time by the big stack. This is another reason I think CO is calling the push at least 90% of the time becase he should have limped expecting a push by BB. I think in this spot CO is just trying to get more chips in the pot and this is a terrible spot for SB's move with such a weak hand.