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#1
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How hard did he hit? AQs
5-handed. Hero is Button with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Limp, limp, I raise, BB calls and the limpers call. Four to the flop for 8.5 SB. Flop is A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I bet and all call. Four to the turn for 6.25 BB. Turn is Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Only Cutoff calls this time. Cutoff is 36/7 preflop, passive and really tight on the flop, then the surviving hands LAG it up somewhat on the big streets. HU to the river for 8.5 BB. River is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Oops, I've been checkraised. Now what? |
#2
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Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
A9 just seems so extremely likely given that line so I would 3-bet.
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#3
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Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
[ QUOTE ]
A9 just seems so extremely likely given that line so I would 3-bet. [/ QUOTE ] No way, I think this is a backdoor flush like >70 percent of the time. In the middle of a match I three bet. When Im totally level headed I say call |
#4
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Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] A9 just seems so extremely likely given that line so I would 3-bet. [/ QUOTE ] No way, I think this is a backdoor flush like >70 percent of the time. In the middle of a match I three bet. When Im totally level headed I say call [/ QUOTE ] Mntbikr's intuition is right. AcXc is totally logical here. We are an underdog to have the best hand in this spot so even 3bet/folding, with the assumption that villian always caps river with better hand than AQ, is a losing play. Call and expect to lose is the only play on the river. |
#5
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Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
[ QUOTE ]
A9 seems likely enough given that line so I would call. [/ QUOTE ] FYP 3betting is lol |
#6
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Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
i'd say he mostly has A9, Acxc,Kc5c,99 (discounted of course). against this range your only option is to call, as you have less than 50% equity. of course he has some other random stuff in there, but i doubt it can swing it to a raise.
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#7
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Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
if you can't fold to a 4 bet you probably should just call.
since he was getting like 12-1 on the flop he could have anything. |
#8
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Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
its either 5 6 of clubs type of hand or A 9. hard say that A 9 doesnt put in a raise somewhere before this though, especially in a five handed game. i would just call and expect to see clubs more than two pair.
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#9
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Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
I count about 15-20 flush hands that can be discounted to varying degrees (conservative estimate would be 50% on average). Only 6 combos of A9. seems like an easy call.
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#10
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Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
[ QUOTE ]
I count about 15-20 flush hands that can be discounted to varying degrees (conservative estimate would be 50% on average). Only 6 combos of A9. seems like an easy call. [/ QUOTE ] Hi vma, How much do you discount pair+flush draw in a players range when you are told that he likes to lag it up postflop? Note that this requires CO to play his made hand + big draw passively both multiway (the first time he acts) and heads up (the 2nd time he acts). Also... 15-20? That seems high. Where are you finding all these combos? AK, AJ, AT, A8, A7, A6, A4, A3, K5, 75, 65, 54, 53... AK with no preflop raise? Highly unlikely. A4, A3, 54, 53 just check-call turn with pair + flush + straight draw? From a lag? Seems pretty rare. That just leaves AJ AT A8 A7, where we have him check-calling top pair + flush draw. I don't see players that like to give action playing these hands passively. K5c and 65c still are pair + flush draw, and while a sane player should check-call given the strength of our turn bet, players that like to lag it up postflop probably won't. Personally, A9 looks like the heart of his range. -eric |
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