Basic line move question

[MCS]

Pinnacle changes their lines frequently. Often, I lean toward a team at let's say +120, and then later see that the line is at +130. How should I feel about this? Should I think to myself, "I liked them at +120, so I should like them a lot +130 and now make this bet"? Or should I think, "Someone smart or rich likes the other side, and so I should be suspicious of this move and maybe wish I had bet their side earlier"?

What determines whether it is better to be fading line moves or grabbing the new, better numbers?

[sublime]

hard question to answer in baseball. there has been much debate on fezziksplace about this subject this season. if you do a search of 'cutter' the poster you should see some discussion between him and fezzik about this subject.

[freewheeler]

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What determines whether it is better to be fading line moves or grabbing the new, better numbers?

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The source of the line move. You are correct that Pinnacle moves their lines more than anyone else, because they are an "old school" operation that manages the book not the player. If the line move is due to sharp action, then you are probably better to jump on the bandwagon despite the worse price. If, however, the line move is due to square money, then you are quite happy to take the better price. Problem is, you just never know. I've always felt that a smart strategy is to monitor the line moves at Pinnacle, and then grab the side that has been getting bet on Pinnacle at some other site before they move their price. If you can get a line somewhere that is better than what Pinnacle is offering - especially if it is because of a late line move at Pinnacle - you have a pretty good chance of being +EV by taking it.

A related strategy in baseball is to parlay the run line (-1.5) with the over if you can get both at lines equal or better than Pinny's lines. Most books will not allow this correlated parlay, but sportsbook.com does. I figure that if you are getting as good or better than Pinny's prices - which have a very small make-up for the book to begin with - then the correlated nature of this parlay makes it +EV in many cases (especially when the -1.5 team is away and >100).

[beetman]

I'm pretty certain that taking a home -1.5 with the over is always -EV and you'd be better off betting them separately. Road -1.5's are ok though.

[MCS]

I have thought about the "source of the line move" idea a lot.

Is there a correlation between WHEN the line moves and the source? For example, maybe late line moves are usually public money whereas early ones are due to pros. What about the direction of the move?

And how does this relate to other sports, like the NFL? Someone once told me a long time ago that most line moves in pro football follow some pattern about public/pro and dog/fave, but I forgot it and they might have been wrong anyway.

I know this is kinda complex; I'm trying to get a clearer picture in my mind of how this stuff works. Thanks.

(This is an issue since a few times recently I have managed to get the worst possible number on the less-bet side. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] )

[KJL]

I have many of the same questions as you. The way it seems easiest to me is to see what percentage of the public is on a certain game. If it is lopsided to one side or even and the line moves in the direction opposite you would assume it would than that is right side to be on. I would be intrested in knowing if this is at all a good way to look at things.

[Shakes]

I'm no expert, but based on what I've read elsewhere and advice I've received in the past...

Sharps bet early. Public bets day of the game. Therefore, sharp moves are early, public moves are late.

Also, moves based on sharp action move the line quickly. Moves based on heavy public action have the line bleeding slowly (e.g., throughout the week, a college football favorite slowly climbs from -21 to -26).

Advice coming straight from me: Pay attention to what handicappers are releasing to their clients. This is something that could very easily be exploited, and I don't think much has been said about it. Many handicapper releases are released at www.atstalk.com. You have to register to read their handicapper forum where they give away all the picks they can.

My thoughts on this are that handicappers who are actually betting what they are releasing are almost certainly betting what they are releasing well before they release it, betting into a superior line. This leaves their customers betting into an inferior line and having it balloon further. Perhaps other handicappers will jump on the bandwagon, and their customers will bet heavy also. By the time all of this is finished near game time, fading this action may be quite profitable.

Any example of this is whenever Phil Steele releases his picks, especially the few 5* picks he puts out. Just fade his line moves. He might be picking 52-53%, but even that is against the very best lines. He's certainly not beating the inflated lines many of his customers are left betting into.

As usual, line shop for the most inflated lines. These lines can typically be found at shops like Bodog, Bowmans, and Millenium (Steele recommends Millenium to his customers).

I personally think that line tracking can be a useful tool. Follow where the line opened up at, as well as where it has been. If you can consistently find the best available lines on the side you want to bet from the time the line opens, there is a lot of value in that. If a line has already moved a couple points against you, be far less inclined to bet it.

[ImBen]

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As usual, line shop for the most inflated lines. These lines can typically be found at shops like Bodog, Bowmans, and Millenium.

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All of these shops deal dual lines. If you bet the fat side of the square lines, they'll quickly stop giving them to you.

[Shakes]

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As usual, line shop for the most inflated lines. These lines can typically be found at shops like Bodog, Bowmans, and Millenium.

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All of these shops deal dual lines. If you bet the fat side of the square lines, they'll quickly stop giving them to you.

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This depends on how often you do it, and how much you're playing for, amongst other things I'm sure. Some books pay no mind to small stakes bettors, regardless of what type of bets they're making.

[MCS]

FWIW, I have been doing a ton of line tracking. I've basically been assuming that the opening lines are pretty sharp, and if I see late (presumably public) line moves, I try to grab the other side. My goal is largely just to get "good" numbers, which means numbers at their extreme. This requires some thought about how and why lines are moving.

Like if a team opens up -120, I think that's an okay price, and everyone keeps betting the other side until I can get -108, I take that (obviously). I have gotten a little better at predicting how lines will move since I've started paying more attention.