Stud8 - raise 4th with low draw against high hand?

[roggles]

Quick one, just wondering if you think a raise is in order on 4th in this spot.


7 Card Stud High-Low ($2/$4), Ante $0,40, Bring-In $0,50 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 5: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___completes
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (3.65 SB)

Seat 3: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (2.83 BB)

Seat 3: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises

6th Street - (6.83 BB)

Seat 3: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

River - (8.83 BB)

Seat 3: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___calls
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

Total pot: (10.83 BB - $43,30)

[RubbishCards]

Yes, a live 3-flush on 4th is worth about the same as an ace when you are against a big pair, so you should be about a 55% favourite if he didn't improve. You're a small dog against queens up, so you'd probably need to slow down if he 3-bets.

[Alchemist]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, a live 3-flush on 4th is worth about the same as an ace when you are against a big pair, so you should be about a 55% favourite if he didn't improve. You're a small dog against queens up, so you'd probably need to slow down if he 3-bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

With a Q and J dead, he's still a slight favorite if Villain has QQJJ on 4th.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=3786276
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s8 5s 7s 3s 8h - jd qh qs jh / 2c 5h jc qc kd
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
7s 5s 3s 8h 115916 115916 384084 0 389344 0 0 0.526
Qs Jd Qh Jh 89755 384084 115916 0 0 0 0 0.474

[SGspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
With a Q and J dead, and the villain's limp on 3rd, I'll eat my mouse if Villain has QQJJ on 4th.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Alchemist]

[ QUOTE ]
With a Q and J dead, and the villain's limp on 3rd, I'll eat my mouse if Villain has QQJJ on 4th.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree Queens up is pretty unlikely but Villain is playing this hand kind of silly whatever he's got. Of course my point was to illustrate that even if Villain has a pretty strong hand on 4th that Hero is still on the positive equity side of things.