How often is this a bluff?

Alobar · #1 10-12-2007, 04:30 PM

Villian is 15/10/3 after 200 hands

I cant see him possibly having an ace here, unless I guess he made a loose call with A9s PF. 99 makes the most sense, but thats only 3 combos How often is this a bluff with a hand like 88 hoping I fold a bigger PP? What do I do?

should I just be calling PF against someone as tight as this?

PokerStars $1/$2 No-Limit Hold'em - 6 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

CO: $213.40
Button: $200.00
SB: $207.85
BB: $343.85
UTG: $200.00
MP: $374.95

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, MP folds, CO raises to $8, Hero raises to $24, SB folds, BB folds, CO calls $16.

Flop: ($51.00) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $44, CO calls $44.

Turn: ($139.00) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO bets $42,

theplux · #2 10-12-2007, 04:33 PM

foldation. and no 3b pf is good. even vs someone that tight.

orange · #3 10-12-2007, 04:35 PM

i call pf vs. this guy.

tubasteve · #4 10-12-2007, 04:38 PM

fwiw i run at 21/18, and i know ive been on tables and ran at 15/10 for 200 hands at a time. 3-betting pf is fine IMO, but i would mix it up.

thac · #5 10-12-2007, 04:38 PM

Yeah, I call his pfr almost every time, this is a bluff almost never, and it's usually always 99 thinking you just hit your AK or AQ. He's not really bluffing like ever, especially on a card that likely helps your hand.

duckyfuzz · #6 10-12-2007, 04:40 PM

pf is fine IMO even if he is truly 10 pfr.

I'm calling this turn bet and folding to anything of a decent size on the river.

theplux · #7 10-12-2007, 04:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
pf is fine IMO even if he is truly 10 pfr.

I'm calling this turn bet and folding to anything of a decent size on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats not a good plan. If you call his turn bet it's because you're going to likely call any bet on river if it's a blank. Because if you call and fold a river bet to a balnk what's the point on calling the turn? This is 3b pot. Mistakes cost a lot more.

From my experience again a player that tight he has a monter here like everytime and 1010 is just WB.

duckyfuzz · #8 10-12-2007, 04:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Because if you call and fold a river bet to a balnk what's the point on calling the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it's a retardly sized bet and I don't believe he will lead the river with a bluff. I'm floating essentially because I believe he is bluffing enough here to justify a call.

theplux · #9 10-12-2007, 04:56 PM

No offense but you need to improve your math skills.
Hes going to have like 90ish left on the river and the pot will be 223+$.

Do you seriously think a 15-10-3 will be bluffin here when he basically commits himself to the pot. It might sounds like a ridiculous bet beccause obv it is, it's the reason why he did it. Players like you think it's weak and call and then face a shove on the river and fold.

Bad plan. just fold and wait for a better spot. calling is just terrible without any particular infos.

loosbastard · #10 10-12-2007, 04:57 PM

I insta-fold this.