Politicians For and Against Online Poker, August 29, 2007

[Uglyowl]

Some more good news becoming official soon?


Ralph Regula (F* Republican) - 18 term Ohio Congressmen set to retire.

http://campaignsandelections.com/oh/...dex.cfm?id=785

[DeadMoneyDad]

[ QUOTE ]
Some more good news becoming official soon?


Ralph Regula (F* Republican) - 18 term Ohio Congressmen set to retire.

http://campaignsandelections.com/oh/...dex.cfm?id=785

[/ QUOTE ]

If this was insiders selling previously restricted stock from a start up after the IPO I would be selling puts on the stock on margin and looking to re-fi the house, sell the cars and my wife's jewelery!!!


D$D<--smells blood in the water

[HelloandGoodby90]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Some more good news becoming official soon?


Ralph Regula (F* Republican) - 18 term Ohio Congressmen set to retire.

http://campaignsandelections.com/oh/...dex.cfm?id=785

[/ QUOTE ]

If this was insiders selling previously restricted stock from a start up after the IPO I would be selling puts on the stock on margin and looking to re-fi the house, sell the cars and my wife's jewelery!!!


D$D<--smells blood in the water

[/ QUOTE ]

I never know what you are talking about.

[DeadMoneyDad]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Some more good news becoming official soon?


Ralph Regula (F* Republican) - 18 term Ohio Congressmen set to retire.

http://campaignsandelections.com/oh/...dex.cfm?id=785

[/ QUOTE ]

If this was insiders selling previously restricted stock from a start up after the IPO I would be selling puts on the stock on margin and looking to re-fi the house, sell the cars and my wife's jewelery!!!


D$D<--smells blood in the water

[/ QUOTE ]

I never know what you are talking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of the list of retiree's almost all are republicans.

Are they retiring because they want to or did they look at the polling data and decide to quit rather than be embarased in their up comming race. Now is the time before they start raising money to decide.

A politican who quits in office has something of a value after politics a defeated incumbent very little on average.

I compared the number of republican retirees to major stock holders of a start up company that had gone public. They hold stock that is restricted for 6 to 18 months that can't be sold until that time is up. If you bought the stock on the Initial Public Offering(IPO) you watch for things like that, when the restricted stock owners start to bail all at once. It usually means the company is in trouble and the share price will soon fall when the financials become public the next quater out or so, or the trouble shows it self in decling sales or what ever.

The most leveraged "bet" you can make is a put option to sell the stock to another for a set price. You get to "put" the stock in the others hands for a fee. Margin is borrowing from the brokerage firm against the assets in your account usually about 50% is the limit depending on the marginability of the assets. If fully marginable you can double your "bet" for a fee (prime plus or minus). Totally leveraged would be doing a re-finance of 125% and selling any disposable assets to further leverage more "bets" hence the term bet the farm, but here betting something like 3 times the value of the farm with leverage. You loose a fully personally leveraged deal of this magnitude and you are debt sometimes for life!


Sorry for the long post.

Hope it helps,

D$D

[Tuff_Fish]

TE,

Clear your inbox, I need to ask you a question about the Washington trip. Mrs Fish is beating me up [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] and I need to clarify something.

Tuff

[TheEngineer]

[ QUOTE ]
TE,

Clear your inbox, I need to ask you a question about the Washington trip. Mrs Fish is beating me up [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] and I need to clarify something.

Tuff

[/ QUOTE ]

done

[Berge20]

I'd argue that the reason you are seeing a lot of republican retirements is that these guys are simply old and now have significantly less power than they did a year ago--it's just not worth it anymore, especially after tasting the top.

Are there cases where electorally they are in trouble and maybe are trying to save face? Sure--see Rep. Deb Pryce (OH)

I don't see that in most of these races.

[Legislurker]

The 90s electoral shift/gerrymandering is wearing out Berge.
The Republicans overachieved and carved up some nice districts. They controlled some states in both houses. The Bush administration is playing hardball with The Census Bureau
right now over the 2010 count and methodology. First time in my life I can recall funding was frozen and not continued for the next count. Im not privy to what exactly the RNC wants done, but something has them fighting dirty. Contracted firms to do the count had to be delayed. Maybe they see a shift into blue states of electors that may make the electoral map impossible for a Republican national win.
2000 was won even more so by NH voting Bush than Florida which he won outright. 4-5 electors going to NY, California, or a blue stronghold its over for the politicians in power now to run in 2012. If places like Utah, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, or Georgia lose a district, it will be a Republican one.

These retirements by established Republicans are by some in their political prime who intend to move residence instate into anticipated reduced Republican districts and fight it out in 2012. Losing a race is a lot harder to outrun that a simple retirement. Lobby some, earn some cred with the hardcore primary votes. Current districts that were safe in 04 simply don't have the same makeup partisan-wise because of internal migration. I.E., its not a safe win and if its trending away, it will be someone else's district.

[Berge20]

I don't disagree with that assessment necessarily. It is true in certain districts across the country, particularly suburban areas that were once Republican strongholds that have shifted significantly the last 5 years.

Seats like Ohio 15 (Pryce), Illinois 11 (Weller), Minnesota 3 (Ramstad) are clearly going to be difficult fights for the incumbant and may well have led to them choosing to retire.

Certainly there may be other districts in similar situations, but I haven't seen the numbers to suggest that beyond a handful of districts that the main reason Republican incumbents are retiring is because they read the tea leaves as being unable to win in their district as D$D suggested.

A Ray LaHood or Dennis Hastert would win if they sought re-election. So would a Ralph Regula or Chip Pickering.

[sevencard2003]

chrisptp
journeyman


Reged: 05/27/05
Posts: 67
Loc: midwest Re: Politicians For and Against Online Poker, August 29, 2007 [Re: Berge20]
#11897059 - 08/31/07 12:50 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply



thanks for this resource, i posted it over on Part Time Poker News and in the forums at NeverBeg.

care to do an interview for PTP?

Post Extras:

Legislurker
addict


Reged: 05/05/07
Posts: 603
Re: Politicians For and Against Online Poker, August 29, 2007 [Re: chrisptp]
#11897587 - 08/31/07 01:35 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply



Neverbeg is growing large, I have checked it out, I think it would be a great place to recruit some activism. Nothing like bored, broke 19yo kids headed back to college to help make phone calls and write Congress.


so whats new on this, im a member of neverbeg too. when are u gonna be interviewed on the site or come and make some help wanted posts over here??