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  #1  
Old 11-12-2007, 12:54 AM
NajdorfDefense NajdorfDefense is offline
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Default 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&vc=1
Total 140-108-7, around 56.5% last 2 years.

Any home fave that opens at -1 or more, and ends at -0.5-4.5 [<5 pts] fave we bet, out of conference only, excluding a very few mega-rivalry games like Cinci v Xavier, UK v LVille.

Anything else is not in this system. Make sure your 'home' team is really playing at home and not 2 hours away.

Tomorrow looks like 2 games to start us off:
LMU -2
Charlotte -2.5. Posting these early to kick things off and I doubt they will move 3+ either way.

You can wait until an hour before tipoff or 5 mins before to lock in spread if it's -4/-4.5 etc. That's up to you, with so many games going off during a given day now and then I normally just post them in late afternoon - but it's mechanical so anyone can post them if they know the system. [-5pts is not in the system. Even is not in the system.]

System ends with Conf play each year.
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  #2  
Old 11-12-2007, 01:00 AM
CrushinFelt CrushinFelt is offline
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Default Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System

less systems more AC stories gogogo
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  #3  
Old 11-12-2007, 02:41 AM
dankhank dankhank is offline
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Default Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System

cfla -3.5 loss vs nevada
niowa -4 win vs umass
loyala -4.5 win vs penn
ohio -4 win vs nmsu
ucsb -4.5 win vs nwsu
creigh -3 win vs depaul
tulane -2.5 win vs auburn

6-1 results in subset games played so far (based only on closing lines)
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  #4  
Old 11-12-2007, 02:46 AM
hedgie43 hedgie43 is offline
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Default Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System

What's the reasoning behind this one? HCA under-adjusted for in close games?
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  #5  
Old 11-12-2007, 02:51 AM
jhennis jhennis is offline
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Default Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System

Or maybe in a close game the crowd will get involved more?
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  #6  
Old 11-12-2007, 02:52 AM
MyTurn2Raise MyTurn2Raise is offline
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Default Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System

[ QUOTE ]
Or maybe in a close game the crowd will get involved more?

[/ QUOTE ]

the refs get more involved as well....maybe as a by-product
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  #7  
Old 11-12-2007, 03:57 AM
Thremp Thremp is offline
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Default Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System

[ QUOTE ]
less systems more AC stories gogogo

[/ QUOTE ]

Most won't make it into the public knowledge.
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  #8  
Old 11-12-2007, 10:47 AM
kyro kyro is offline
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Default Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System

Noob question: How can you tell what a line opens at? Like, if I catch a line 2 hours after it opens, how do I know if it's moved?
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  #9  
Old 11-12-2007, 11:53 AM
broiler broiler is offline
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Default Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System

Scoresandodds and covers have the opening lines listed for the games. I would be careful with scoresandodds, however, since I've noticed that the opening number occasionally changes to the number that their books open the line at. They are affiliated with a very late opening group of books.

Dankhank:
I think that three of those games should be taken out of counting. UCSB game was played at Stanford, Loyola opened at 5, and Central Florida was widely available at 2 or 2.5 until a few minutes before tipoff.
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  #10  
Old 11-12-2007, 12:25 PM
kyro kyro is offline
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Default Re: 2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System

I show Columbia opening at -3.5 at home. Does this count?
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