100NL - Weird spot with a flopped set against a reg.

[thing85]

Villain is a pretty solid reg, 21/18/2.5 over large sample.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $83.20
MP: $83.65
CO: $44.50
BTN: $266.05
SB: $165.80
Hero (BB): $107.35

Pre-Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
4 folds, SB calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3</font>, SB calls $2

Flop: ($6) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4</font>, SB calls $4

Turn: ($14) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $8</font>, SB calls $8

River: ($30) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero...?

Villain is solid and probably knows I'm solid. It's completely strange for this type of player to limp in the SB. IMO, villain probably raises any of his BTN opening range. Is he getting fancy with AA/KK? He knows I'm a thinking player. My bet sizes are probably smaller than most people would advocate, but they're enough to keep him from drawing to a flush profitably.

Is he calling me down with air hoping to bluff a 3rd diamond? Or is this a poorly played AA/KK? Certainly he'd throw in a raise somewhere with AJ/AK/KJ/Axs/etc (especially PF). There's probably no way I get away from this hand even if I do put him on AA or KK, but I'm curious to see what others think.

[napkins]

I think you've put too much thought into this. Bet 24 on riv, fist pump if he shoves. More on turn as well.

[Skleice]

Raise a little more preflop imo. I think you have to bet here. I think if he got tricky w/ AA then he would've raised flop/turn cuz you obviously like your hand (though your bets are smallish). If he had something like AJ (limped?) wouldn'the raise...pretty drawy out there. He's not calling down w/ Q10 here...now way. BET!

[Daddy Warbucks]

If you checked behind this river i'll come to your house and kill you!

[Paul Thomson]

bet more on the flop. bet more on the turn. bet the river who cares what he calls with, cause i'd call a push.

[wiseman1016]

Bet more on turn. I don't think 21/18 ever limp AA/KK, the only hand I guess you should worry about is QTdd but even then you could expect that hand to raise preflop or on the flop.I say bet 24, double fist pump if he shoves.

[thing85]

FWIW, I did not check behind. Really trying to figure out what a good bet size is on the river because it's obviously a WA/WB situation (and I think I'm WA ~90% of the time).

[wiseman1016]

I think its a weird spot bc I don't know what kind of hands a 21/18 limps with in the sb

[thing85]

That's exactly why this line puzzles me.

[Dr_Doctr]

I like betting more on flop and turn - 2/3 on the river. Maybe the guy just decided 'To hell with it, I'm going to limp my AJ, AQ, 54s, Axs, KQ,(and so on) this hand'.