25NL: Mathematical Call?

[OSUGreg1983]

Getting 2.5-1 from the pot (total pot of 47.95/my call remaining of 19) on a 2.9-1 draw (12 good cards and 35 bad cards remaining). I know its close, but would most people call this? At this limit the answer I would expect is 90% yes, however as limits increase would more players lay this down b/c the pot doesnt meet the mathematical requirement of 2.9-1?


Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $20.70
Hero (SB): $35.30
BB: $25
UTG: $25

Pre-Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG calls $0.25, BTN calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.15, BB checks

Flop: ($1) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $0.75</font>, BB calls $0.75, UTG folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $1.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $24.75 and is All-In</font>, BTN calls $18.95 and is All-In, Hero...

[WhiteWolf]

Two streets left, not one. We're 1.2-to-1, easy call.

Edit: If it was one street left, why would you assume that 90% of us would make a call not getting the odds??? Or is it that 90% of the total player pool for this level would call?

[willyc]

It's not close. Easy call. Where are you getting that you need 2.9:1 to call?

[HotdogPoker]

As played, call, but...

If you're looking for comments on the hand, why 3 bet on the flop? Button isn't going anywhere, you risk chasing out BB who is padding the pot to give you a good price to draw, AND you're giving button another chance to re-pop you and all you have is a draw. I really don't like the 3-bet.

[OSUGreg1983]

[ QUOTE ]
Two streets left, not one. We're 1.2-to-1, easy call.

Edit: If it was one street left, why would you assume that 90% of us would make a call not getting the odds??? Or is it that 90% of the total player pool for this level would call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Has nothing to do with how many streets are left. (NL Holdem: A guide to cash games") I can't give you a reference b/c i dont have the book in front of me. But flush draws are 4-1 dogs, which means you will hit your hand roughly one time out of 4. I have a combo draw which increases it to roughly 3-1. hence i need 3-1 from the pot to make a call. if im only getting 2.5-1 from the pot, that means i have to hit my hand once out of every 2.5 hands to make this call, but I will only hit it once out of every 3.

Second, I was referring to the general quality of play at this limit that most people would make that call on the flop. i said nothing about the turn.

Lol at 1.2-1. What are you talking about here? You're suggesting that we'll hit a 12 outer 83.33% of the time. I think you need to study draws and pot odds as a combination learning tool. You are calling down with draws waaaay too often if this is what you're saying.

[OSUGreg1983]

[ QUOTE ]
As played, call, but...

If you're looking for comments on the hand, why 3 bet on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

These players are very PAG (dont have stats right now) and imo they were very weak. The pot was decent for a squeeze semi bluff. I really dont expect the BB to move in, and I obv dont think the button will come over the top. I may have made a slight mistake on the reraise, but imo i can take the pot down there.

[WhiteWolf]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Two streets left, not one. We're 1.2-to-1, easy call.

Edit: If it was one street left, why would you assume that 90% of us would make a call not getting the odds??? Or is it that 90% of the total player pool for this level would call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Has nothing to do with how many streets are left. (NL Holdem: A guide to cash games") I can't give you a reference b/c i dont have the book in front of me. But flush draws are 4-1 dogs, which means you will hit your hand roughly one time out of 4. I have a combo draw which increases it to roughly 3-1. hence i need 3-1 from the pot to make a call. if im only getting 2.5-1 from the pot, that means i have to hit my hand once out of every 2.5 hands to make this call, but I will only hit it once out of every 3.

Second, I was referring to the general quality of play at this limit that most people would make that call on the flop. i said nothing about the turn.

Lol at 1.2-1. What are you talking about here? You're suggesting that we'll hit a 12 outer 83.33% of the time. I think you need to study draws and pot odds as a combination learning tool. You are calling down with draws waaaay too often if this is what you're saying.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you serious? Everyone is all in on the flop, if we call here we get to see the turn and the river for free, so of course I count the odds of us hitting on the turn or river when I'm calculating my winning chances.

The principle you talk about of only counting the odds for hitting the next card on the turn applies when there is a good chance you will be facing another bet on 4th street. That just doesn't apply here.

1.2-to-1 is 45% to hit, not 83% and yes with 2 streets to come 45% is the chance I hit my 12-outer if I call the all-ins on this street. I have no idea where you get your 83% chance number.

4-to-1 means I hit my draw 1 time out of 5, not 1 time out of 4 as you state. In other words, for every 1 time I hit, I miss 4 times.

I'm suspecting the chances are actually pretty good you're a troll. If you are, well played, because you're about to get dozens of posts explaining exactly why it is YOU don't understand odds.

[CrazyEyez]

[ QUOTE ]
I may have made a slight mistake on the reraise, but imo i can take the pot down there.

[/ QUOTE ]
In all seriousness, you will take the pot down there slightly less than never.

Edited to add: even if BB folds, button is getting well over 2:1. Any hand he liked enough to raise with, he definitely likes enough to at least call your reraise with.

[Logun]

You should have only called the 1st raise - not re-raised.

I agree that btn is coming along for the whole ride so why not add some more $$ in there by keeping the BB in there too.

[DickieBets]

1.2 to 1 , to me, means : 1 / (1 + 1.2) = 1 / 2.2

Since you're getting it all in on the flop - you have two chances to hit your draw - which is roughly 12 outs x 4 = 48%.