Massive .5/1 river overbet, I get there, but...

lippy · #1 10-21-2007, 07:51 AM

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1611117

Villain is 42/15 over 25 hands.

This is the only hand I'd seen him showdown;

Pre-flop:

andwhatthen folds. tjboy97 folds. ahuK raises to
$3.50. EdDGray2081 folds. mrflynt re-raises to $11.
ahuK goes all-in for $58.05. mrflynt calls.

He had 88 and stacked AQ.

I tanked like a mofo on this decision and am still not sure what's right. What are your thoughts.

Oh, and don't say anything about the flop call, I'm relatively sure if he has TPGK I am stacking him if I hit my gutter and we're both 150bb deep.

PS. I play mostly limit but was bored so I played some unlimited.

JFsports · #2 10-21-2007, 07:55 AM

I'd prefer raising this preflop and I'd fold this now. These overbets are almost always the nuts.

Bramsterdam · #3 10-21-2007, 08:21 AM

Fold, u beat nothing but a bluff and as ^^ said, overbets are rarely a bluff at .5/1

lippy · #4 10-21-2007, 08:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold, u beat nothing but a bluff and as ^^ said, overbets are rarely a bluff at .5/1

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I was thinking as well, but then realized I played the hand kind of like a weak Ace. So, he's like, AHAHAHA WEAK ACE NO GOOD.

Still, gotta be a fold I guess.

Bramsterdam · #5 10-21-2007, 08:34 AM

Why would you call flop with a weak Ace? As a matter of fact, is villain capable of figuring out a decent range for you? Is he capable of overbet shoving as a bluff?

You have to be good here ~50% of the time and I estimate your hand is good here 15-20% of the time.