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| View Poll Results: MLB is how big a crapshoot (6 being most, 1 being least) | |||
| 6 |
   
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22 | 28.21% |
| 5 |
  
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24 | 30.77% |
| 4 |
  
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20 | 25.64% |
| 3 |
  
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7 | 8.97% |
| 2 |
  
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2 | 2.56% |
| 1 |
  
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3 | 3.85% |
| Voters: 78. You may not vote on this poll | |||
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#1
10-10-2007, 12:02 AM
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$3/$6 interesting Razz hand.
Comments? Villain is unknown unfortunately...
3rd is I guess debateable but I was getting more than 4:1. Two dead 5s and a Q>K made me call it. I really thought about capping the river... Razz ($3/$6), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $1 (converter) 3rd Street - (1.33 SB) Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds Seat 2: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___completes Seat 5: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds Seat 6: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds Seat 7: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds Seat 8: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds 4th Street - (3.33 SB) Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls 5th Street - (2.67 BB) Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets___calls Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises 6th Street - (6.67 BB) Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets___calls Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises River - (10.67 BB) Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks___raises___calls Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx___bets___raises Total pot: (16.67 BB - $100) -ChipsAhoya 
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#2
10-10-2007, 12:53 AM
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Re: $3/$6 interesting Razz hand.
Betting 5th is maybe a little thin but it probably worked to your advantage in that villain probably thinks you're dumb. I think he has a 6 a lot on 6th but the pot is too big to fold for one bet. There are only 3 6s he could have, A2456, A3456 and 23456. I think he'd probably bet/raise with any of these. Would be a pity if he improved to the nuts but it happens. Capping here seems more reasonable than in the hand Spoon posted, because his board is not as bad and he was probably well ahead of you on 6th, and so he's going to expect to still be ahead unless you sucked out on him.
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#3
10-10-2007, 12:58 AM
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Re: $3/$6 interesting Razz hand.
Fold third. Cap the river. You do realize that he would specifically have to have A23 down to beat you, right? Meanwhile, it's hard for him to put you on a Six. I'd be far more likely to put you on brain damage given how the hand's played thus far. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#5
10-10-2007, 01:05 AM
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Re: $3/$6 interesting Razz hand.
I would have done exactly this until 5th. Then I still would have done exactly this while yelling at myself for not folding. Then I would have done exactly what you did on 6th while telling myself I would brick the river and why do I get involved in stupid hands.
And then I would have put in every bet I could get him to call on the river. PLEASE tell me we won.... prax<--living vicariously thru better players
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#6
10-10-2007, 01:09 AM
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Re: $3/$6 interesting Razz hand.
Yeah, 3rd is a fold - he did raise the entire field, it's not like he's in steal position. If he bricks 4th and you don't he probably won't fold.
Edit: and when I say probably, I mean, well, obviously he didn't.
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#7
10-10-2007, 01:20 AM
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Re: $3/$6 interesting Razz hand.
[ QUOTE ]
jesus christ fold third [/ QUOTE ] I'm getting 4:1 to outflop him and unlike other bring-in defenses where I suffer from reverse implied odds, I'm not going to be calling him down hoping he's stealing. I'm perfectly fine w/ folding 4th if we both catch good, unlike vs. a steal. Plus this is 3/6 so it increases the chances he won't know a234q > 985xx and/or will make other mistakes in the hand. Plus I'll have position for the whole hand unless something neat happens like him catching a K. I'm not close to thinking dropping this particular b/i for this particular hand would be a good idea. -ChipsAhoya
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#8
10-10-2007, 01:30 AM
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Re: $3/$6 interesting Razz hand.
Well, yeah, but you're really getting 4:1 to catch up and a lot of the times that you catch up you're still slightly behind. It would be much better if your K was a T and his 5 was a 7. Are you going to fold if he catches a T and you get an 8? If not are you going to be happy with calling?
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#9
10-10-2007, 01:45 AM
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Re: $3/$6 interesting Razz hand.
[ QUOTE ]
Well, yeah, but you're really getting 4:1 to catch up and a lot of the times that you catch up you're still slightly behind. It would be much better if your K was a T and his 5 was a 7. Are you going to fold if he catches a T and you get an 8? If not are you going to be happy with calling? [/ QUOTE ] What I'm reallydoing is paying $2 for the right to outflop him, which is profitable/breakeven. If I outflop him, I continue, which should on average also be profitable. Therefore I strongly believe this is a profitable play. I have less "all-in" equity here than if he was on a steal, but more favorable implied odds to make up for that. If he catches a T and I catch an 8 I'm now ~38% and subsequently can't fold. I'd evaluate on the cards that came out, considering dead cards, etc.
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#10
10-10-2007, 01:52 AM
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Re: $3/$6 interesting Razz hand.
I guess what I'm getting at is that you're going to "almost" outflop him more than you'll actually outflop him. There are very few cards you can catch, and very few bricks he can catch, where you'll be an out-and-out favorite. If you don't mind calling getting 4:1 in order to be a 60:40 dog and continue, I guess that's OK. I can't really comment as to the long term success of such a ploy, but it's possibly profitable.
Folding really can't be wrong though. My gut feeling is that calling is somewhere around neutral and slightly -ev. Definitely +stdev Edit: you're not a favorite on 4th - it's very close to neutral, and he caught the brickiest brick in the deck, and you got the babiest baby. You're never far behind on 4th though. 2nd edit: actually, outflopping him might be impossible. All you can hope to do is catch up to be like a 51:49 dog. I'm just saying is all.
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