AKs UTG - can I check this?

Fiddler · #1 02-15-2006, 04:07 PM

Party 3/6 6-max (5-handed)

Hero has A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG.

CO is loose and bad, Button seems pretty decent 24/19 or something like that but his post-flop aggression is a bit high around 3.55 in the hands (>500) I have on him. Not sure what he has been doing post-flop since they are mined hands.

Pre-flop:
Hero raises, CO calls, Button raises, Hero caps, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (8.5BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero checks, ...

Do I really have to bet here and why? In my mind no one is folding for 1SB here and the range I put button on means that I'm getting raised here around 50% of the time.

deception5 · #2 02-15-2006, 04:17 PM

I'd bet this every time. Most of the time it's a value bet.

Fiddler · #3 02-15-2006, 04:46 PM

It is true, I have an equity edge at showdown but I'm not convinced it will actually get me much since I'm getting pounded whenever big clubs or a pocket pair is out which is about 50% of the time and it is not at all certain that I'll get paid off if I hit an A or K. So getting to the river cheap doesn't look so bad to me. Plus, I can lead a lot of high turn cards after a flop-check through and not look totally dishonest.

I'm not sure either way, I'm just throwing ideas out there. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Scary_Tiger · #4 02-15-2006, 04:47 PM

Lots of (crappy) 6-outers will fold on the flop.

deception5 · #5 02-15-2006, 05:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It is true, I have an equity edge at showdown but I'm not convinced it will actually get me much since I'm getting pounded whenever big clubs or a pocket pair is out which is about 50% of the time and it is not at all certain that I'll get paid off if I hit an A or K. So getting to the river cheap doesn't look so bad to me. Plus, I can lead a lot of high turn cards after a flop-check through and not look totally dishonest.

I'm not sure either way, I'm just throwing ideas out there. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not just that you have an equity edge at showdown - more that you'll often be called down by worse aces and that most hands have 3-6 outs against you (and you wouldn't mind them giving up their share of the pot). There is a chance that you're against a pocket pair, but it's far more likely that your opponents have 2 random cards which missed the flop (button having 2 high cards).

As far as clubs go, it's pretty rare that you're against 2 clubs - given that a player has 2 unpaired cards, they will have 2 clubs around 1/16 of the time (around 12% at least one of the two players have 2 clubs - not too much to worry about - and even then the flush only comes in around 1/3 of the time). More likely you are against one club and only have to worry about runner-runner clubs.

Keep in mind that with AK you don't need to hit an A or a K to have the best hand - especially on a board like this which hits extremely few hands. Your opponents usually still have to pair to beat you. And if you do hit one of those, you'll often still get called by a worse A/K or even QQ/JJ/xx.

Finally keep in mind that when the flop gets checked through, any card 9-Q could be bad for you (at which point you are often calling down). There's no reason to give your opponents a free card when your hand is so vulnarable.