100/200 vs aba

[DenGreek]

I disagree. I think aba's strength is very disguised, and I doubt he is attempting a semi-bluff raise frequently after flat calling the flop and getting bet into on the turn by Stinger.

I like the turn bet but I find a fold after he puts you all in.

[palman]

I too agree people are underestimating the AA/KK/AK/TT probability.

As a simple analysis as it comes, there are only a few hands you are really ahead of.... some sort of combo draw.... and people are analyzing this in the 3rd level saying he's using the scare card to bluff you, when that turn card should be a scare card for his combo draw. If he has a combo draw, he's not nearly as likely to push here WITH a combo draw because that turn makes it much more likely you have a calling hand, especially since you lead the turn.

So if he's less likely to push a combo draw because that scares you, he's much more likely to have a hand that has you crushed. That seems like a fold.

[Daut44]

fold.

aba plays a lower variance game than smoothing the flop raising the turn all in. i think he disguised his strength preflop and now wants a call. QJ outside possibility. only bluff i can see is like J9dd where he floated with a gutshot and turned the diamond draw. highly doubt air or worse hand for value here.

[LucidDream]

You really only beat A5 and air. Your hand has basically the same value vs him as KQ except for the times he shows up with A5 which are probably very rare. KT just doesn't seem likely enough.

[Orlando Salazar]

First, Aba has AQ so shove here.

Actually, I think check-calling that flop OOP makes your life easier. Aba sees you as weak with no draw holding something like JJ,QQ or KJs when u bet OOP. As a result, he will put you to the test should any scare card fall. What does Aba raise this flop with? Nothing! So don't bet when you are weak. You get no information but set yourself up to be outplayed. Results?

[LucidDream]

um....no

[JMa]

[ QUOTE ]
First, Aba has AQ so shove here.

Actually, I think check-calling that flop OOP makes your life easier. Aba sees you as weak with no draw holding something like JJ,QQ or KJs when u bet OOP. As a result, he will put you to the test should any scare card fall. What does Aba raise this flop with? Nothing! So don't bet when you are weak. You get no information but set yourself up to be outplayed. Results?

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Stinger88]

[ QUOTE ]
First, Aba has AQ so shove here.

Actually, I think check-calling that flop OOP makes your life easier. Aba sees you as weak with no draw holding something like JJ,QQ or KJs when u bet OOP. As a result, he will put you to the test should any scare card fall. What does Aba raise this flop with? Nothing! So don't bet when you are weak. You get no information but set yourself up to be outplayed. Results?

[/ QUOTE ]

no

[aejones]

I would probably fold. I'm also skeptical about the turn lead- but I think it shows a lot of strength; so I'd probably be okay about folding after leading the turn in most cases, but it could change in the flow of the game.

[wdead]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't see folding when he could be doing this for value with a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

i doubt aba is doing this for value with a worse hand.
i like a fold here