Tough turn spot w/ 87s

[kidcolin]

PFR is a 2p2er. Villian just sat down within the past couple orbits. Seems to peel some flops but nothing out of line.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $213.85
UTG+1: $85.45
Hero: $100
Button: $114.90
SB: $55.85
BB: $101.10

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $3.5</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($17.5, 5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $15</font>, Button calls, 3 folds.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($47.5, 2 players)
Hero?

[tree_stump]

Well, my rule of thumb is this:

If you check and he bets, do you call?

If the answer is yes, I think you HAVE to bet. Fold to a raise.

[kidcolin]

if you bet, how much?

if you check, are you ever calling a bet?

[***]

Bet $30. It's tricky to be out of position with a hand that you'd like to showdown but can't take much heat. Betting too little could be seen as weakness, but villain likes to peel. It isn't certain that you are now beaten, but it's certainly a risk, so potting seems like asking to only get action when you are behind. You can get about the same effect with less downside by betting less. Obv fold to raise.

[Claunchy]

Bottom two has to be the hardest hand to play I swear.

Anyway, I was leaning toward a b/f, but I can't think of a worse hand that calls unless he happened to be peeling w/ Kx or A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and a pair. Maybe just check and see how much/how quickly he bets and sorta go from there -- maybe call maybe fold.

[***]

[ QUOTE ]
Bottom two has to be the hardest hand to play I swear.

Anyway, I was leaning toward a b/f, but I can't think of a worse hand that calls unless he happened to be peeling w/ Kx or A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and a pair. Maybe just check and see how much/how quickly he bets and sorta go from there -- maybe call maybe fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Combo draws are also in his range, and potentially A9 as well. Checking lets villain play pretty effectively against you here, by checking behind his marginal hands, betting his good ones, and sometimes even bluff you after floating.

I much prefer betting because it saves the pot the times we are ahead (which I think is often enough), and occasionally lets us fill up when villain slowplays a better hand (straight out of fear or flush out of greed). Check/folding isn't out of the question, but I think even many bad players know that checking here means you are giving up and will attack you. Defending against this is worth the cost of a bet in my opinion.

[kidcolin]

guys,

a pure float is mega unlikely here.

[***]

[ QUOTE ]
guys,

a pure float is mega unlikely here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd have to put it in the category of only somewhat unlikely as villain has his choice of draws to bluff.

However my recommendation of a bet is based more on that I think T9 and 67 are fairly likely holdings, as well as possibly AT. And yes, a flush draw. But I think the former are more likely than the latter.

[deaders]

Betting here is horrible, c/f isnt awful, depends on how much he bets. If he pots I think c/f is good actually. Bottom 2 usually sucks, especially on this kind of board.

[kidcolin]

check/calling seems way worse than betting.