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  #1  
Old 09-08-2006, 02:39 AM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Default To hedgers: Adding insult to injury

If you hedged the Mansion Steelers bet, you lost. I'd like to point out that most people who hedged did so incorrectly.

If your bankroll can't take a favorable (5% edge) coinflip for $500, even after you are handed $500 by the generous folks at Mansion, then betting about $525 to win $475 locks in a win of about $475, and may be better than not hedging at all. However, it's almost impossible for that hedge to be optimal.

Suppose you believe the game is really 50:50. Imagine you start from the position of hedging 100%, with a sure win of about $475. Reducing your hedge bet by $110 is the equivalent of betting $100 to win $110. That's a good deal for you if your bankroll is at least $4500, assuming a conservative level of risk tolerance (Kelly fraction greater than 1/4), though it might not be optimal for you. With a bankroll over $450, you can at least afford to reduce the hedge by $11, risking $10 to win $11.

The first half of the full hedge gives you 3/4 of the value, while the last half gives you 1/4 of the value. So, in some sense, the last half is 3 times as expensive as the first half. If you weren't sure whether to hedge, it was probably optimal for you not to hedge anywhere close to 100%, since the last half of the hedge should have been a bad deal for you.

That said, the difference isn't huge. On average, the mistake from hedging too much costs less than the juice on the entire hedge, about $50, and for most people it would be significantly less.
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  #2  
Old 09-08-2006, 02:43 AM
Ron Burgundy Ron Burgundy is offline
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Default Re: To hedgers: Adding insult to injury

Thx for starting another Mansion thread, I got worried there might not be another new one this hour.
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  #3  
Old 09-08-2006, 02:45 AM
E.Z. E.Z. is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 391
Default Re: To hedgers: Adding insult to injury

dont get cocky, i wanted top hedge more than 10% but didnt cause of line change.

alot of those that hedged got bonuses at other books or kickbacks from sites to cover your $50 you think they lost.


in the end...us non hedgers got lucky as hell
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  #4  
Old 09-08-2006, 02:45 AM
DonkeyKongSr DonkeyKongSr is offline
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Location: Home of Best Hockey Team Ever
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Default Re: To hedgers: Adding insult to injury

I won $840 vs. $890 if Miami won. I must suck because I gave up $160 so that I guaranteed $840. Hedging sucks. Not...I was 1 unlikely interception from seeming like a genius. $160? I could give a [censored]. $840? Very nice.
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  #5  
Old 09-08-2006, 02:52 AM
metsandfinsfan metsandfinsfan is offline
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Location: Long Island
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Default Re: To hedgers: Adding insult to injury

explain how you hedged and still guaranteed 840
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  #6  
Old 09-08-2006, 02:54 AM
thing85 thing85 is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: 100NL but I like uNL too much to leave
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Default Re: To hedgers: Adding insult to injury

YEAH OMG AND PLZ PM ME WITH REFERRALS.
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  #7  
Old 09-08-2006, 03:09 AM
DonkeyKongSr DonkeyKongSr is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Home of Best Hockey Team Ever
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Default Re: To hedgers: Adding insult to injury

As posted elsewhere, I came in at the exact right time, took advantage of the Casinocashulimited $250 bonus (no referral needed, but entering DaveyG013 would be nice if you do sign up) and I got this...

[ QUOTE ]
$1100 at Mansion and $550 ($500 cash+$50 bonus) at Sports Interaction with Pick on each side at both places gets you (assuming -110 payment on bets and disregarding the unlikely Tie that leads to a push):

Pittsburgh Win:
+1000 on Mansion
+90 signup bonus through Pokersavvy
-500 on SI
+250 from CCU
------
+$840




Miami Win:
+0 on Mansion
+90 signup bonus through Pokersavvy
+550 on SI (you will get the $500 win and the $50 signup bonus)
+250 from CCU
----
+$890

[/ QUOTE ]

Now, I've already withdrawn my Mansion money (minus $100 that I'll donk off there as appreciation) and need to wait on Pokersavvy and CCU to fulfill the rest.
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  #8  
Old 09-08-2006, 03:11 AM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Default Re: To hedgers: Adding insult to injury

[ QUOTE ]
Hedging sucks. Not...I was 1 unlikely interception from seeming like a genius.

[/ QUOTE ]
It sounds like you missed the point. Hedging might be right for you (and I seriously considered hedging), but hedging close to 100% is unlikely to be right for any advantage gambler. Did you choose hedging so much because it was better than not hedging, or because you considered and rejected all smaller hedge amounts?
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  #9  
Old 09-08-2006, 03:13 AM
E.Z. E.Z. is offline
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Posts: 391
Default Re: To hedgers: Adding insult to injury

SI is sports interaction correct?? what is CCU.

didnt do what you did but would like to in the future
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  #10  
Old 09-08-2006, 03:24 AM
SoCalRugger SoCalRugger is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: on the raggedy edge
Posts: 2,296
Default Re: To hedgers: Adding insult to injury

[ QUOTE ]
I won $840 vs. $890 if Miami won. I must suck because I gave up $160 so that I guaranteed $840. Hedging sucks. Not...I was 1 unlikely interception from seeming like a genius. $160? I could give a [censored]. $840? Very nice.

[/ QUOTE ]

You gave up $250. Us non-hedgers also got the $90 Mansion referral bonus, for a total win of $1,090.
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