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  #51  
Old 02-27-2007, 07:12 PM
DJ Sensei DJ Sensei is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: pushing it to the limit
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Default Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan

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Big Jim:

uh.. what? I have to make ~$200 on the river on average to compensate for a $96 turn peel? Are you high?

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Feel free to point out where you see an error in my calcs. I am not above making an occasional mistake.

Also, yes, I was slightly high when I made that post.

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lol
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  #52  
Old 02-27-2007, 07:14 PM
Parlay Slow Parlay Slow is offline
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Default Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan

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Getting only 2.5:1, you need to make ~$200 on the river, playing just for your draw.

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This isn't even possible if I had 0% equity.

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Wow.

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Demonstrate a situation where I need to make $y on the river in order to make up for a $x sized turn call where y > x.
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  #53  
Old 02-27-2007, 07:21 PM
Hindsight2020 Hindsight2020 is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2006
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Default Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan

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Getting only 2.5:1, you need to make ~$200 on the river, playing just for your draw.

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This isn't even possible if I had 0% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow.

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Demonstrate a situation where I need to make $y on the river in order to make up for a $x sized turn call where y > x.

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if you are a 4:1 dog, and you are getting only 2.5:1 from the pot, playing only for your draw, you need to make 1.5x the turn bet, on the river, when you hit
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  #54  
Old 02-27-2007, 07:26 PM
CopTHIS CopTHIS is offline
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Default Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan

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^^^^^^^yep^^^^^^^

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Maybe this guy should take over

I'm sure he scrutinized the calculations carefully

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Awesome.
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  #55  
Old 02-27-2007, 07:39 PM
Parlay Slow Parlay Slow is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2003
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Default Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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Getting only 2.5:1, you need to make ~$200 on the river, playing just for your draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't even possible if I had 0% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow.

[/ QUOTE ]

Demonstrate a situation where I need to make $y on the river in order to make up for a $x sized turn call where y > x.

[/ QUOTE ]
if you are a 4:1 dog, and you are getting only 2.5:1 from the pot, playing only for your draw, you need to make 1.5x the turn bet, on the river, when you hit

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok pot is $100. Guy bets $66.67. I call as an 80/20 dog.

The EV of my turn call is 0.2*(66.67+100) - 0.8*66.67 = -$20
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  #56  
Old 02-27-2007, 07:54 PM
Hindsight2020 Hindsight2020 is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Driving with my Rear View
Posts: 426
Default Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Getting only 2.5:1, you need to make ~$200 on the river, playing just for your draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't even possible if I had 0% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow.

[/ QUOTE ]

Demonstrate a situation where I need to make $y on the river in order to make up for a $x sized turn call where y > x.

[/ QUOTE ]
if you are a 4:1 dog, and you are getting only 2.5:1 from the pot, playing only for your draw, you need to make 1.5x the turn bet, on the river, when you hit

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok pot is $100. Guy bets $66.67. I call as an 80/20 dog.

The EV of my turn call is 0.2*(66.67+100) - 0.8*66.67 = -$20

[/ QUOTE ]
ok.. so if you get a 66.67*1.5 = $100 bet from him on the river:

0.2*(66.67+100+100) - 0.8*66.67 = 0
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  #57  
Old 02-27-2007, 07:58 PM
Parlay Slow Parlay Slow is offline
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Default Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan

you're right
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  #58  
Old 02-27-2007, 09:32 PM
jlocdog jlocdog is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Lake Tahoe/NYC
Posts: 2,638
Default Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan

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^^^^^^^yep^^^^^^^

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Maybe this guy should take over

I'm sure he scrutinized the calculations carefully

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Don't feel like 'taking over'. You seem readily convinced that your line/plan is the best so no need to go further. And your statement about this not being true even if you had 0% equity is just plain wrong. There has been more then enough posts for your reasoning to be shown flawed but you stay stubborn. And I have yet to see any calculations from you as to why your plan is +EV in any way either. You just continue to retort every poster that replies.

You are a good poster when you want to be but that goes the same for you sucking. Maybe tomorrow will be a good day.
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