The Myth of Suited Connectors

[pzhon]

There is an important idea that is missing from "The Myth of Suited Connectors," the idea of blocking your opponent from having a calling hand. It would strengthen most of the points made. Let's look at one example where it arises:

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Suppose that it's the first hand of the World Series of Poker Main Event and you've drawn the small blind. In a break with tradition Phil Hellmuth has shown up on time and sits down in the big blind. If, for some idiotic reason you choose to make an all-in move here, you would rather hold 76s than A5o, because Hellmuth's calling range consists of a single hand, AA. When called, 76s is a 3.5-to-1 longshot against aces, while A5o is an overwhelming 11.5-to-1 dog.

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In fact, you would be better off if you pushed with A5o than if you pushed with 76s. Either way, you are a huge underdog when called. When you get called with 76s, you expect to lose 55% of your stack. When you get called with A5o, you expect to lose 82% of your stack. However, ignoring the bunching effect, you will only get called half as often when you have A5o, 3/1225 instead of 6/1225. A5o blocks your opponent from having half of the possible AA hands. Pushing with 76s costs 0.27% of your stack (after gaining the big blind). Pushing with A5o costs 0.20% of your stack, so pushing with A5o is better, even though it is a larger underdog when called.

As I mentioned before, this is important in NL when you make a raise or reraise so that you are most worried about an opponent holding AA.

[Red_Diamond]

I understand you totaly there, as it is something that gets me into trouble often(having AK and never putting my opponent on AA is an example). However, all those writers have only a certain amount of words to squeeze in each article. I imagine there is a lot of things each has to throw out to compact the columns enough.

[chaz64]

That's a good point. I think PokerStove takes into account the lowered chances of being up against AA if you hold Ax, so if he used that it should be reflected in his results.

I had just finished KP and played around with Stove to see what I would come up with, and I concluded the same thing - suited connectors won't do as well against looser players. But I think they can still be pushed when you are really short stacked, or have just one or two opponents to get through. And while calling ranges may loosen later in a tourney, players sometimes seem to tighten up on or near the bubble for fear of finishing out of the money.

Also, hate to nit pick, but "Blair and Rodman" should be "Rodman and Nelson."

[ptmusic]

Minor point: most players I've seen with a loose enough range to call with any two broadway will also call with Ax all the way down to A2o, not A7o. Since the author picked A5 as your hand, adding in these should actually help the case for pushing with Ax, as YOU will be the dominator with most of these added hands.

[pzhon]

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I think PokerStove takes into account the lowered chances of being up against AA if you hold Ax, so if he used that it should be reflected in his results.

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No.

PokerStove gives you a conditional probability given that you have a hand in your range, and your opponent has a hand in that range. So, if you give your opponen KK-AA, and you give yourself A2, PokerStove will know that there is a 2/3 chance your opponent has KK since you block half of the combinations of AA.

PokerStove will not tell you that having A2 decreases the probability that your opponent has a hand in the KK-AA range relative to when you have 76s. This factor should have been included in the article.

[tipperdog]

Hi Pzhon,

You make a very interesting point, and I think you are right. I wish that I could say I omitted this point for space reasons (Red_Diamond offers a very convenient excuse), but that wouldn't be the truth.

I enjoy writing for the magazine largely for the discussion that follows. There's often a lot of chest-thumping "I'm right and you're wrong," but you took the time to conduct a thorough but concise analysis and comment. Thanks for that.

[betgo]

It really depends on the situation. Say you are pushing for 10xBB from 5th position. Then Axo is one of the worst hands you can have, since if you are called it will generally be by a reasonably high pp or ace.

If you are open pushing for 10xBB from the SB, then Axo is better than a suited connector, because the BB is generally calling with a wide range of hands, including king high and queen high hands for which Axo plays much better than 76s.

Say you are making a squeeze play push over an early position raiser and a caller. If you get called, it is probably by a big hand, atleast TT-AA or AQ-AK. In this case, a suited connector, Axs, or suited broadway cards all play about the same if called.

The article was very simplistic in that it didn't differentiate the situations.

Also, it compared suited connectors versus Ax for pushing. However, you are generally better off pushing two high cards, preferably suited, or any pp than either of these hands.

[Red_Diamond]

I don't know if anyone has writen this one up yet, but if you are sb and everyoen folds around to you, odds are much higher that the BB is sitting with a bias of extra aces and kings. Now that is something I wouldn't mind briefing the numbers over, even if it often won't make a difference knowing the exact percentage adjustments or not.

[Red_Diamond]

I will say this, I don't realy pay much attention to the suited part. I've played these connectors long enought to know that when you do hit that flush, either no one pays you off, or when they do, it's only because they have a higher flush.

Not that this is too related to the topic at hand. But generaly myself, I expect to hit my opened ended draw on the flop 9.6% of the time. So if I am in late position and not much raising has gone on, I MAY decided to gamble a bit with these connectors. This is especialy more-so if I am bored, as I have a 10% chance now to get interesting with it. But nothing less than 5-6. And I would still rather have a wired pair.

[Xhad]

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when you do hit that flush, either no one pays you off, or when they do, it's only because they have a higher flush.

Not that this is too related to the topic at hand.

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It's not related at all, the article is about preflop all-in situations.