Another common spot with AK

[Jailblazers]

If we are going to be pushing for 9x the 3bet raise, will people catch onto this that we ONLY do this w/ AK? Because I don't think many of us are over-betting all-in w/ AA or KK.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
Im confused, pokey youre saying that if villain is calling with JJ-99 then a push is +EV? What I dont understand is that QQ is about the same as those equity wise against AK, no?


[/ QUOTE ]

No, what I meant was that if villain three-bets with 99-JJ but folds them to your push, that alone will win you the $9 pot often enough to make pushing EV-neutral.

[ QUOTE ]

While I do agree that people 3 bet light sometimes, I dont run into that pretty much ever if I am opening from either UTG or MP. Figure if villain 3 bets 99+ and AQ+ and calls a raise with all of those except AQ, how can pushing be +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, but you're suffering from Psychic Villain Syndrome. You've given a reasonably tight range for villain, but you've then had him fold the ONLY hand that is significantly -EV against your range. Why are you sure he'd fold AQs but not 99? He surely can't put you on EXACTLY AK when you four-bet push; if he thinks there's a chance it's AA or KK he should be dumping 99-QQ into the muck, too. If he's convinced you're FOS, he's also calling with the AQ, making your showdown odds +EV.

Villain can't see your cards, so he's going to have a nasty time trying to respond perfectly to your push, here. If he folds the wrong kinds of hands, your play is +EV. If he calls the wrong kinds of hands, your play is +EV. It's pretty hard to come up with a realistic scenario where this push actually loses you money in the long run.

[olliejen]

Profish, what range of hands does an average player in this game 3-bet here?

[Profish2285]

I guess I am just being really results oriented but I ran into this situation once today and twice yesterday and got insta called in all 3 spots by AA, 99 and TT respectively. Obviously I am expecting the call from AA so that is whatever. But once I get called by the 99 and TT and both of them were from villains with taggy stats, I began to think about it alot.

Ollie, obviously that depends on where youre opening from. Like I said before though, I generally give villains ALOT more credit for their 3 bets when I open from either UTG or MP. So I would say a fair 3 betting range would be 99+ and AQ+.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]

Alot of this talk about pushing though is ending up with the knowledge of this being a neutral EV situation.


[/ QUOTE ]

You miss the point of the EV-neutral calculations. They're not to show you that the bet is neutral; they're to show exactly where the tipping point between "profitable" and "unprofitable" sits. After looking at the EV-neutral situations they look VERY conservative to me, meaning that most of the time a push is going to be extremely +EV, rather than neutral.

[ QUOTE ]

I really dont like to put my stack in the middle of neutral EV spots.


[/ QUOTE ]

You shouldn't think this way; rather, you should not care at all about putting your money in when the EV is neutral. If you fear EV neutral situations you're playing too conservatively, and it will cost you money in the long run as you flee from slightly +EV but high-variance situations. Stop fearing variance and your bankroll will thank you for it.

[ QUOTE ]

The way I see it is much more often than not, if someone is willing to 3 bet a UTG raise, they are also willing to get their stack in when we shove to them but maybe thats wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's wrong, but I also think it's irrelevant. If you shove and they always call, that will be very +EV (but very high-variance) in the long run, since they're three-betting with hands that are badly dominated by your range. If you shove and they fold frequently, that will also be very +EV in the long run, as you scoop that tasty $9 pot uncontested with a high frequency. The only way this is -EV for you is if your opponent's three-betting range is just SICKLY tight AND your opponent calls a 4xPot four-bet all-in with the entire range. I just can't see that as a likely scenario, so I think this is a highly +EV move.

[Profish2285]

Pokey you make some very good points, I will definitely give you that. Okay, I guess its time to stop letting 3 bad hands affect me and keep pushing. One more question, what do you do against a villain who you know will call your shove with 99 and TT? Do you start to fold AK then and increase the times you do this with AA and KK, or do you just push AK each time anyway?

[anthb7210p]

Does anyone like a small 4bet here? If you push, your likely only going to get called by hands you have suspect equity against (range maybe QQ-AA, AK), and if you call your most likely folding to a cbet. Folding your likely missing out on value against a tag who 3bets light.

[LegendLength]

[ QUOTE ]
so what do you do when you miss 66% of the time? I am guessing c/f but that seems like a huge spew of cash over time.

[/ QUOTE ]

But folding AK can also be though of as spew. 4 betting is probably the best option because of position but I also like to flat call here.

Depending on the villains cbet percentage you can check/call a ragged flop.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
what do you do against a villain who you know will call your shove with 99 and TT? Do you start to fold AK then and increase the times you do this with AA and KK, or do you just push AK each time anyway?

[/ QUOTE ]

I just push AK each time anyway, and I'm even more happy to do so, because the player who calls 99 also calls AQ and KQ and probably a few other hands, so my overall winrate when pushing AK skyrockets:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
431,500,608 games 0.005 secs 86,300,121,600 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.609% 48.59% 07.01% 209683452 30269364.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 44.391% 37.38% 07.01% 161278428 30269364.00 { 99+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }
</pre><hr />

Note that I'm now a FAVORITE against his range, rather than a dog. I'm now winning $60 six times and losing $50 five times, meaning I'm ahead about $10 PER HAND with a push.

Tasty.

[anthb7210p]

right, but are people really 3beting UTG opens with hands like KQo, 99, TT, AQ?