AA, huge flop check-raise on me

[Lego05]

I'd shove....sometimes it's a set and sometimes it's a big draw, but sometimes it's naked spades and sometimes it's TT, etc. I'd fold against someone I knew was a good TAG.

And by the way definitely raise more pre-flop. 4 times the BB is standard with no limpers. But you have a limper here and are OOP. I'd make it 2.5 standard....maybe a little more if the guy calls tons of pre-flop raises just cause he'll prolly call anyway and it gets a little more money in there.

[Johnny2Gunnz]

In the long run a shove is +EV. You're right to think that you'll get beat by a set a large percentage of the time but in the long run you will come out ahead more often than not.

[Gorgias]

If we put villain on 22+, AJ+, KQ, 54s-JTs preflop...

With two spades his raise is reckless, because he only makes it around 32% of the time. You should happily get it all in vs. a flush draw.

A set's possible. But what if he does this with any flush draw (as a big semibluff) and with any set?

66+88+33 = 1.5% of possible hands
54s-JTs, KQs, AJs+ (spades) = 2.1% of possible hands.
-->so 3/7 of the time you're behind, 4/7 ahead

you beat the draw 70% of the time, and you lose to the trips nearly always--unless you make your own set, which happens 8% of the time.

If you shove:

3/7 of the time you lose -45 90% of the time and win 55 10% of the time.
4/7 of the time you lose -45 30% of the time and win 55 70% of the time.

= ~-1, so I get that a shove is just marginally -EV if he never folds. Will villain ever fold? It doesn't seem like he will...if he won't, then shoving is a very marginal play.

[Babalatexi]

Without reads I fold. A strong draw would probably bet/3bet all-in here. He's in the SB and completed and then called a re-raise, pp's are a huge part of his range and tons of people play pp's like this. I just can't see an overpair playing like this, makes no sense, which means you're just too much behind his range to make a shove +EV.

Edit: Remember that in the above post we're assuming that villain would play all flush draws this aggressively which I really doubt so I believe the EV is much more negative.

[WarhammerIIC]

Every time I get in this situation, I always think, "THIS is going to be the time I call and they have nothing". Then, I call, and they pretty much always show a set.

[godofPOPOV]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 26/16/3.2 in 300 hands

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($57.90)
SB ($49.50)
Hero ($51.30)
UTG ($49.60)
MP ($64.65)
CO ($58.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, UTG calls $1.50, SB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $25</font>, Hero?

It's either fold or push. Don't think anyone will play a set like this. I think it's a huge draw. Am I good against villain's range?

[/ QUOTE ]

villain range IMO is: / pocket pair &gt;88 / set / 2 spaded over cards / bluff

so your'e beating the PP&gt;88 / the over cards looking for the flush / a bluff

[Capone]

Easy shove here IMO, i think you see a draw, or TT a lot there.

[godofPOPOV]

[ QUOTE ]
Without reads I fold. A strong draw would probably bet/3bet all-in here. He's in the SB and completed and then called a re-raise, pp's are a huge part of his range and tons of people play pp's like this. I just can't see an overpair playing like this, makes no sense, which means you're just too much behind his range to make a shove +EV.

Edit: Remember that in the above post we're assuming that villain would play all flush draws this aggressively which I really doubt so I believe the EV is much more negative.

[/ QUOTE ]


people play overpairs like this all the time..

[Pro666]

WTF push. Funny that you got 2 callers as 4x blind used to be good in the past to get heads up with the aces, but seems like guys are ready to gamble more these days. This game is getting crazy. At 50NL these days seems like you gotta raise 6 to 8 times the blind to get these m-fers to fold. I raised 5x blind recently with aces on 6 handed FT and got 4 callers. That being said, at this level and at FT who knows. Could be anything.

I'd be like Doyle and just push it.