live 6/12, 87s from BB

[Frond]

Preflop-I would save any raises with this hand for the CO and BTn or sometimes the HJ to mix things up a bit.

BTW, I go ahead and bet out sometimes on these flops cause that is how I roll [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img].

With 8 people seeing this flop you are going to have to improve your hand to win it and your outs aren't all clean. I stick with folding the flop as played.

Don't become one of those players(the kind we love) that calls down with any piece of any flop with any BD draw. Think twice before tossing in your chips just because you got a small piece and it is 8 ways.

PS. McC scotch does rock.

[Hyperrrprank]

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Um... this is a fold. Is the world insane? You don't have 6 outs here when its bet and raised in a passive live game. Plus, as others have said, you aren't closing the action and if it get threebet you definantly don't have 6 outs.

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Christ. This is so frusturating. This is where I started and now I'm back there again. It's like I'm incapable of thinking for myself. I'm terrified of looking stupid. This puts me on life tilt.

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Here's some math if it makes you feel better. If we assume we've got 5 outs or thereabouts, that we'll fold the turn if we miss, but will win 3 extra big bets if we hit, we only need to assume approx. a 10% chance we'll get 3-bet & capped before our call has an EV of less than half of a small bet. This ignores the times we'll hit our hand and lose to a redraw or bigger hand at showdown, and anything we make here is vulnerable.

.6 =(26*0.1)+(-2*0.8)+(-4*0.1)

There are plenty of assumptions in here, but anything we can imagine to make this call worth more can be balanced by similar imaginings to make it much worse. Add in a 2% chance that we hit a hand but lose to something else (costing an average of 5SB more before we showdown the loser) and you get

-.02 =(26*0.08)+(-5*0.02)+(-2*0.8)+(-4*0.1)

[One Outer]

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Um... this is a fold. Is the world insane? You don't have 6 outs here when its bet and raised in a passive live game. Plus, as others have said, you aren't closing the action and if it get threebet you definantly don't have 6 outs.

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Christ. This is so frusturating. This is where I started and now I'm back there again. It's like I'm incapable of thinking for myself. I'm terrified of looking stupid. This puts me on life tilt.

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Here's some math if it makes you feel better. If we assume we've got 5 outs or thereabouts, that we'll fold the turn if we miss, but will win 3 extra big bets if we hit, we only need to assume approx. a 10% chance we'll get 3-bet & capped before our call has an EV of less than half of a small bet. This ignores the times we'll hit our hand and lose to a redraw or bigger hand at showdown, and anything we make here is vulnerable.

.6 =(26*0.1)+(-2*0.8)+(-4*0.1)

There are plenty of assumptions in here, but anything we can imagine to make this call worth more can be balanced by similar imaginings to make it much worse. Add in a 2% chance that we hit a hand but lose to something else (costing an average of 5SB more before we showdown the loser) and you get

-.02 =(26*0.08)+(-5*0.02)+(-2*0.8)+(-4*0.1)

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Dude. I don't understand any of that. At all. Plz simplify for the retarded among us, okthenthx.

[jesse8888]

Fine fine, I'm convinced. A call here is marginal at best and under most conditions will lose money. Stupid math....

[mntndrew]

Thanks all for the interesting comments.

Hyper, nice post, but... aren't you showing the call as +EV in your first example? +.6 is +.6. If I'm reading it correctly, you're saying I'll showdown a winner for 26 SB 10% of the time (this is 4.5 extra BB on the big streets rather than the 3 you mentioned in the text, which I think may be closer to accurate against this lineup; I also think this is closer to 20% under the assumption of approximately 5 effective outs); have it capped 10% of the time costing me 4 SB (it's actually worse, if I'm assuming that one of them has a set, I'll still have to see the river if I turn a straight or flush draw, so it'll cost me 6 SB a fair amount of the time); and 80% of the time will c/f the turn at a cost of the two SB for the flop call (a little less than half the deck improves my hand enough that I'll usually have to peel, so again, this is actually a little worse).

FWIW, I think the raiser's range is quite tight given the dry flop and his style of play. I think he has AQ-KQ, maybe some smaller Q's, or 88 or 55. He basically never has two pair here.

Against this range, if we say we discount QT-QJ by half, we have 36 combos against which my two pair/trip outs are live (but susceptible to re-draws) against 4 where I'm relying on my backdoors.

Anyway, I guess I'm looser than I thought given the comments. I look to my left and see the MP player ready to call, I make a loose call counting close to 6 outs and getting likely 8:1, and 6 players go to the turn for two bets.

Flop [8 SB]: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Turn [9.5 BB]: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
4 checks, HJ bets, BN, SB, Hero, MP1 call. MP2 folds.

River [13.5 BB]: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB checks, Hero bets...

standard?

[Hyperrrprank]

Yeah, my first calc showed a marginal marginal +EV, but as I noted it was disregarding those times where you made a hand and still lost. I was trying to show that this was a call with either a very slim advantage or a LARGE disadvantage. You need everything to go properly to pull half a small bet off the table.

Once you factor in times (like you demonstrate here) where you'll now need to call a turn bet (agreed this is standard now that you've picked up a gutshot), or where you make a second best hand, this is a big loser.

[cgrohman]

There is a flush draw and an overcard. How much equity does middle pair have here? Fold that flop

[AlienBoy]

BASED ON OP's FIRST POST ONLY:

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Maybe one folder, so 8 players, I have 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in BB. I think about raising it up but chicken out -- the table is not super loose, so the 8-handed play is exceptional, which likely reduces any equity edge I might have. OTOH, maybe this means lots of limping with broadways and my hand is stronger than I think?

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First of all, the value of 87s goes UP with more players in the pot - the reason is that this is a very speculative hand, and you need to hit the flop hard to win which isn't going to happen very often - so when it does happen, you need lots of people to pay you off for all the times you play this hand and it does NOT hit.

PF - no raise here - you're in the BB with a speculative hand - just check. If the pot is already raised, you can call one bet more with that many callers.

Flop - check call one bet. Now on the subject of calling two bets, you're probably getting as much as 8.5 to one on this call.

2 outs (an 8) are your cleanest I think, and will let you check raise the turn, and I'd expect that you'd get implied odds of at least 6 more BB, and possibly as many as 9 by the river.

1.5 outs (a runner runner flush) are probably fairly clean, and might allow your to check raise the river if the opponents behind you are aggressive enough to bet a 3 flush river. Leading out here may not get many callers though as it just says "hey! I made my flush!" and you're probably only getting called by a bigger flush, so I wouldn't consider you implied odds that fantastic since you're not only calling two small bets here, but must call at least one BB on the turn if a heart falls. Considering the flop action, you might end up facing two BB on the turn. Yikes!

3 outs (a 7) are less clean, but still could be good. Tiptoe carefully though as it might fill some one's gutshot, or give a chaser an OESD.

0.5 outs (runner runner straight) if a 6 falls on the turn, then a 4 or 9 on the river, though one card straights are often not worth the paper they are printed on - it could easily be a chop or lose to 79. Both easy possibilities in this multi handed pot.


In short, you have possibilities with this hand, but you DIDN'T hit the flop hard, you only caught a piece of it - as mentioned above, 78s is mostly good in multi handed pots AND when you hit the flop HARD. I'm folding this flop.


If you continue you need to play the turn carefully - I'd probably:


Check/raise an 8

Check/call no more than two BB if a heart falls (I expect that calling two on the turn you'd be getting at least 5 to 1 at that point, plus or minus a bit).

Check call no more than ONE BB if a 6 falls

Consider check raising if the 6 of hearts falls.

And if the 7 falls - this one I'm least sure of, and I'd say very read dependent, but maybe bet out/call or check raise? I'd probably bet out, and call ONE bet, then check/call river (unless a 7 or 8 falls on the river, then check raise the river and jam as many bets in there as you can).


All this assumes that you are calling two cold on eh flop.

For what it's worth, I'm not. I am NOT calling TWO COLD out of position, not closing action, with mid-pair where my kicker is an undercard that could make a straight for someone if it falls, really one 3.5 semi clean outs (the BD flush and the 8), and not knowing how much more I'm going to have to SPEW to get to a hand that can win at showdown, because there's little doubt there'll be a showdown here.



AB

[AlienBoy]

I wrote the above post before seeing that the OP posted the turn and river action. Here is separate commentary on that.

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Turn [9.5 BB]: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
4 checks, HJ bets, BN, SB, Hero, MP1 call. MP2 folds.

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Anyone with 67 who was chasing the OESD now has the nuts. Given the action, however, I doubt this. Someone with Q6 though could have a gutshot that they're going to stick around for.

It gives you mid pair and a gutshot, but you now pretty much have to consider any 7 falling as a sign of DOOM. You really can't count those outs.

You can count another 8 falling (2 outs) and a 6 falling (4 outs), so you have 6 outs. You are getting enough to call here, unless you read that MP1 is going for a check raise.

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River [13.5 BB]: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB checks, Hero bets...

standard?

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Not standard. Spew. This is not a value bet. There's a 4 card straight on the board, and you're only getting called by a hand that demolishes you. As I mentioned on the turn, you need to discount your 7s as they are probably just going to make someone else a much better hand.

Check/fold may be best. Depending on read you can check/call ONE bet only. Fold if it's raised.

AB

[mntndrew]

Thanks AB, nice posts.

Re: the river bet, it seemed that the two most likely players to hold a 6 were the SB and BN since they're the two worst players. SB is straightforward and would have led out a rivered straight, and I would have folded to a raise from anyone except the HJ flop raiser.

Only the HJ called down, with KQ. Oh well, marginal to bad play pays off sometimes I guess, I wasn't sure about the flop call at the time and it looks like most disagree with it.