Barry Bonds Props on Bodog

[gtrunner57]

I just saw there are a ton of Barry Bonds 756th HR props on Bodog, but they are all closed for betting. Anyone know why this is?

[MyTurn2Raise]

Bodog sometimes decides they have enough action

sometimes they reprice the props and open them up

no good answer

[thing85]

[ QUOTE ]
I figured this was worth a bump...
I have the over.. (27.5 seconds)
It looks like the "old man with sore knees" made it around the bases in 26 seconds on his last HR.
Is this correct? He paused a few seconds at the plate but then he got around the bases fast.
This could be interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a super small sample size, but if you look at my OP, Bonds was quicker when he tied Babe Ruth's record compared to when he broke it. I'm not sure this means anything, but assuming they occurred within a short time of each other (i.e. his physical health was the same for each), he "milked" the moment a bit longer when he broke a record compared to when he simply tied it.

I agree that it could be interesting but I still really like 27.5. For those of you who got 29 (or 29.5, I can't remember), I would be a little bit more worried.

[gtrunner57]

I found what I think is an incredible Barry Bonds prop on Bodog.

Right now +700 can be found on Bodog on whether Barry Bonds will hit his HR on a 0-0 count. Historically, he has hit 121 of his 755 HR's on a 0-0 count, which is 16%.

In addition, I have Lannan as being a really poor pitcher and giving up home runs at a rate of 1.05 of that compared to the league-average pitcher. The fact that Lannan is not a good pitcher tells me that the 1.05 multiplier should be weighted towards favorable hitter counts. In other words, home runs off Lannan will be much more likely (over 1.05 multiplier) to occur in 3-1, 2-1, 2-0, 1-0, and 0-0 counts as compared to that of league-average rates. Home runs in 3-0, 3-2, 2-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, and 0-2 will be under the 1.05 multiplier and in some cases may even be below league average due to the reduced frequency of Lannan's 0-2 counts, for example.

In addition, this year Barry Bonds has been swinging at first pitches 27% of the time. That's up from his career first pitch swing rate of 26%, and significantly up from his first pitch swing rate in recent years (22% in 2006, 19% in 2004, 24% in 2003, 25% in 2002, 25% in 2001).

This bet is No Actioned if he does not hit the HR. I've concluded that there is almost an 18% chance he hits his HR on an 0-0 count and set the line around +/- 460. Looks like a very solid bet in my opinion.

[TomG]

I'm pretty sure the Bodog bet refers to when he hits career home run number 756, not just the game tonight against Lannan. It only gets No Action'd if Bonds somehow never hits # 756. I still like your analysis, though, regardless of who is pitching.

[SonnyJay]

He stood at the plate for a while. Had to go over.

[vilemerchant]

Can anyone confirm how long it took? I had o29.5

[thing85]

It took about 32.5 seconds. This bet is a winner for sure.

[insanity31]

Ship it.... too bad I couldnt bet $2500 on it so i would be unstuck from poker. My worst night ever... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

They already paid out mine. 32 seconds.

[zstratt]

nice call on this, glad it was a no doubter