Stud8 - (AA)K facing reraise from Q door

[Andy B]

[ QUOTE ]

Why not jam 5th street?

[/ QUOTE ]

We've got one pair. Who's to say that someone doesn't have two pair or better? The one guy is raising with something. Everyone else is calling with something. There are still plenty of ways this hand can go south. I think it's better to use some caution here.

I think this hand was well-played.

[Raxxmataxx]

[ QUOTE ]
We've got one pair. Who's to say that someone doesn't have two pair or better?

[/ QUOTE ]Not to be a dick about it, but did you actually read my post?

I explained that getting rid of a pair of queens always is good, and same goes for the bad low draw. So even if we are screwed we gain by getting rid of some competition.

I also explained why it is very unlikely we're beat for high. The low boards are playing exactly like a good and bad low draw, respectively and the high board is just calling and had to have started with Q7Q, Q3Q, or trips to beat us. And those cards are really dead. And more importantly, someone who has a high hand good enough to *re-raise* with on 3d can be expected to put in another raise when he improves.

So yeah, we only have a pair, and a somewhat dead on at that, and the other guys have something. But I've put in a fairly credible explanation why we're good against that something despite just having a pair and why good things can happen by a raise.

[Raxxmataxx]

For instance, suppose we're up against the following line up:

Ah Ad Kh 5s Td
Qd Jh Qh 7s 3s
6c 3h 4h 5c Qc
5h 4d 7d 2h Kc

Ie, two lowdraws and one with open-ended straight possibilities. By getting rid of the other high hand we increase our equity from 24% to 33%. If we don't succeed in that we lose a tiny bit, but nothing worth crying over.

If we're up against a four-flush and four-low we change our equity from 18% to 29% by thinning the field.

If we're up against two lowdraws without good high possibilities we have 30% equity in a four-way pot and increase that to frickin' 45% by isolating against the lows.

If we're up against trips, we're obviously destroyed. But for that to be true someone has to have trips with one queen dead, parleyed with them changing from pounding to slowplay.

It's just not credible that Q73 has us directly beat for high. I'd estimate it to be somewhere in the 1-5% vincinity, if that. A flushdraw would be pretty bad, but those aren't exactly a huge part of a reasonable, or unreasonable, re-raise distribution on third.

There's some oddball potential in the low boards starting with QQ (KKK is impossible now) 22, 444, 55 or 77 in the hole, or anyone else than us having AA. And those situations will screw us up, but they are pretty damn unlikely.

To me, it seems like a huge mistake not to raise.