Wagering on the 2008 election

[revots33]

Wasn't sure if politics or Internet gambling was the best place for this as it kind of covers both...

Was looking at the odds at WSEX and INtrade to see if there were any good wagers on either the Repub or Dem nominee side. Does anyone see any money to be made on these?

Right now I'm focusing on who will win the republican nomination. Here are the current WSEX buy-sell prices per share (each share returns $100 if they win the nomination):

Giuliani 25-30
Romney 21-26
Thompson 17-22
McCain 16-21
Gingrich 3-6

Any thoughts? In my mind Thompson seems overpriced and might be a short candidate. I also think a combination of an even amount wagered on Rudy/Romney might be a good wager as they seem to be the 2 most likely winners by far.

[bobman0330]

i love romney, but I think there's just too much bigotry among the primary voters for him to get the nomination. Thompson I agree with you on. McCain I see as sort of an anti-Romney. He's sucked so far, but there are a lot of people who are disposed to vote for him anyways.

[TomCollins]

Sell Thompson. Buying McCain seems smart, with the intent to sell later. I think he'll outlast a lot of people, even if he doesn't win.

[DVaut1]

I'm with Tom on loading up on McCain right now at that price. He's got the money, organization, and an experienced team of insiders running the show, and he's the fall-back candidate for the strategic GOP voters who are uncomfortable with the other high-visibility candidates like Romney and Giuliani (for whatever reason, be it Romney's religion or Giuliani's reputation as a 'liberal' who's pro-choice and pro-gun control). His campaign has been rather uninspiring so far, to say the least, but with his name recognition and popularity with Beltway-insiderish money guys, it doesn't really matter. I understand his fund-raising was lackluster in the first quarter of '07 but he certainly won't run out of money like some of the 2nd and 3rd tier candidates will.

This doesn't mean I think McCain win the nomination, but he'll certainly hang around long enough to get good value on that bet.

[iggymcfly]

FTR, I think sports betting would have been the best forum choice although it doesn't really matter. On topic, I agree with the rest on shorting Thompson. It doesn't really make sense for him to be above McCain right now. If I were to guess, I'd say it's just one or two big supporters of his inflating the price.