Top two pair deepstacked, tough river

[MrBerlin]

BU: 150$ 26.2/8.93/0.89
Hero: 174$

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
MP3 calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, BU calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, <font color="grey">BB folds</font>, MP3 calls $3.00, <font color="grey">CO folds</font>, BU calls $3.00.

Flop: ($11.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="red">Hero bets $8</font>, <font color="red">MP3 raises to $8.35 (All-In)</font>, BU calls $8.35, Hero calls $0.35.

Turn: ($36.55) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="red">Hero bets $25</font>, BU calls $25.00.

River: ($86.55) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="red">BU bets $113.95 (All-In)</font>, Hero ???

No specific reads. I cover BU. Call or Fold?

[barryc83]

You lose to 66 or A6. Ugh this is a sick ass spot. How many hands are stats over? Just judging by stats, it doesnt seem like hes the type to bluff a busted FD here, thats a ballsy move this deep.

[MrBerlin]

the stats are over 220 hands

[JPeezy55]

66 = unlikely. If he's good, he's raising the flop (as has been strongly suggested to me on these forums today).

A6 = possible.
AQ = possible.
Busted monster draw/AK = possible.

Odds: Bad. By my calculation you've got to be 57% sure you're good here to make the call.

This guy isn't hyper-aggressive. I could see him acting this way with KJ-hearts/J10 hearts given that there's a lot of money in the pot and that you've shown weakness by checking the river, but I can't be close to 57% sure that's what he's on. Even if it's AQ, I'm only chopping.

I probably lay it down, hope he shows me A6, then take a walk to avoid tilting.

[barryc83]

I'm curious to what others would say about this hand. I'm leaning toward folding this though, but that could be biased to that fact that you prob lost bc youre posting it. Hes raising a big A pf so no AK/AQ for him. He looks loose passive and semi sane. That overbet push is a big hand so much and his AF =.90 over 200+ hands. I like a fold, I think this is A6/66 the majority of the time.

[Kondzik]

IMO this is an easy fold. I think he has a very strong hand.. such a big bet with such tight stats...