Poker is Luck

[Wake up CALL]

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If I make the correct play according to the Fundemental Theory of Poker, I beat my opponent whether or not they get lucky and win the hand.


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Those "Sklansky Dollars" are only redeemable via Neteller, good luck with that btw.

[Skallagrim]

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The key difference is not the built in house edge that can only be overcome by card counting, the key difference is that your decisions in blackjack can NEVER determine who wins or loses.

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Methinks you write without thinking. Please reconsider this portion of your post. Hint: Bet Size

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Methinks you should first re-learn how to think and then try and explain to me how the size of your bet can even remotely influence whether YOUR HAND BEATS THE DEALER'S HAND OR NOT.

I know how card counting works, and if you dont get enough wins when the count is good you come out a loser.

And the point of my post is simply to remind you folks that it is possible to win with the worst hand in poker. Not all the time, but enough of a time to make poker more skill than chance.

[Wake up CALL]

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The key difference is not the built in house edge that can only be overcome by card counting, the key difference is that your decisions in blackjack can NEVER determine who wins or loses.

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Methinks you write without thinking. Please reconsider this portion of your post. Hint: Bet Size

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Methinks you should first re-learn how to think and then try and explain to me how the size of your bet can even remotely influence whether YOUR HAND BEATS THE DEALER'S HAND OR NOT.

I know how card counting works, and if you dont get enough wins when the count is good you come out a loser.

And the point of my post is simply to remind you folks that it is possible to win with the worst hand in poker. Not all the time, but enough of a time to make poker more skill than chance.

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Just can't quit when you are only a little bit behind can you? You do not need the best cards in BJ to win either, you can stand on 4 and if the dealer busts you win. Also where did I(or the rules of BJ) say anything about beating the dealers hand every time is the only way to win at BJ. You can't have your cake and eat it too, unless you want to apply this to poker as well. Then you would be admitting that poker is luck and your false pride will never permit that.

Funny how when you write something down it becomes more difficult to say you never said that!

[NickMPK]

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The key difference is not the built in house edge that can only be overcome by card counting, the key difference is that your decisions in blackjack can NEVER determine who wins or loses. The cards will always decide the outcomes, and you can only play percentages.


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My decisions can never determine whether I win or lose??? This is absurd. Clearly, my most basic decision to hit or stand will influence whether I win or lose.

E.g. I am dealt a 20. I have a decision to make. I can either HIT, and almost certain lose, or STAND, and probably win. Clearly, I have influence over my fate. This decision is obvious, but there are many other decisions that are not as obvious and that many players routinely get wrong, leading them to lose more often than they could if they had made better decisions.

[AlanF1]

aww jeez not this shiit again

[Skallagrim]

I only wish all the people I argue with had the intellectual skill being shown here lately.

Exhibit one: "Just can't quit when you are only a little bit behind can you? You do not need the best cards in BJ to win either, you can stand on 4 and if the dealer busts you win. Also where did I(or the rules of BJ) say anything about beating the dealers hand every time is the only way to win at BJ. You can't have your cake and eat it too, unless you want to apply this to poker as well. Then you would be admitting that poker is luck and your false pride will never permit that."

Do I really have to explain that under the rules of BJ if you have 4 and the dealer busts YOU HAVE THE BEST HAND? Tell me how many times you have been paid off when after all the cards are dealt the dealer had a better hand than yours? I want to know this place.

Exhibit 2: "My decisions can never determine whether I win or lose??? This is absurd. Clearly, my most basic decision to hit or stand will influence whether I win or lose."

Does it take a rocket scientist to understand that "influence" is not the same thing as "determine?" When you chose to hit that decision will make a difference, you will get another card. AND THAT CARD (OR THE NEXT ONE, OR ONE OF THE DEALER'S CARDS) WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS PAID ON THAT HAND. Winning a hand always depends on the cards in BJ.

Anyone know where these guys play poker?

Skallagrim

[TheEngineer]

Skallagrim,

I'm not sure if it's important or not, but as blackjack was my primary AP game prior to taking up poker (and I do still play blackjack at tne black-chip level), I'll address your reply simply to share some experience.

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Blackjack is a game that is influenced by skill, but never determined by it.

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Card counters have an edge over the house, much as the house has an edge over non-skilled players. While casinos may not be "skilled" simply by offering a negative expectation game to drunken ploppies, they do require various marketing, surveillance, and other core competencies to make a regular profit. Similarly, card counters must have some specific skills, including the ability to count cards without making errors, to know the right amount to bet for the advantage, and to know the proper play deviations for the count. Sometimes the AP must use "cover" to fool the house into thinking he is a ploppy. This is a soft skill used to maximize expectation, as this cover costs money but buys more time. I personally define everything that goes into being a successful AP as "skill". The IRS recognized this in allowing pro blackjack players to file as professional gamblers.

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In poker, your (and the other players) decisions CAN decide who wins and loses. Your decision to fold has decided the outcome of your hand independant of the cards; likewise, your decision to raise may decide who wins or loses independant of the cards by inducing your opponents to fold.

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I guess I'm not sure why my ability to control someone else's play makes something a matter of skill. To be honest, I can influence someone else's odds at blackjack by playing only when the cards to be dealt favor the players and sitting out when they favor the house, causing the ploppies to get more than their fair share of lower expectation hands than they'd have gotten heads-up.

I guess the issue is how you define the word "skill". I think I'm skilled if I can turn any negative expectation game into a positive expectation one via decisions I control. Also, I can prove mathematically that I have a positive expectation over the house. I wish we could do that as straightforwardly for poker.

Finally, the last casino to tell me I can no longer play blackjack at their establishment said it's because I'm a "skilled player".

[TheEngineer]

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I know how card counting works, and if you dont get enough wins when the count is good you come out a loser.

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That would be hard. I've played only one session of blackjack. It's lasted my whole life, and it won't end until I die. It's been interrupted many times, but I'm easily in the long run (we typically define this as one standard deviation from break-even). The probability of me being a net loser at blackjack, given the number of hands I've played in this "session" is far less than 0.001.

[Skallagrim]

Finally, a smart post.

Dont disagree with anything you have said, Engineer. But what you have said will not, at least legally, lead to the conclusion that blackjack is MOSTLY SKILL. Making money at blackjack is a skill, indeed. But blackjack the game is all probability/chance. Get good at that, and the other skills you describe (and dont get noticed) and you can be a winning blackjack player OVER THE LONG RUN.

But you cant do it without getting the cards. If you are the unluckiest person on earth such that your personal cards were way off the probability charts and are always bad, even counting wont save you. IT STILL DEPENDS ON THE CARDS.

I am not denigrating the amount of skill it takes to be a winning blackjack player. I am saying that winning in blackjack is ALWAYS determined by the cards, though influenced by the player. And what cards you or the dealer get is never a result of skill. And thats true also in poker.

BUT, you will agree with me, you can win (sometimes) in poker regardless of your cards. Thats what pushes poker over the "mostly skill" hurdle and makes it different legally, IMHO.

Skallagrim

[Auren]

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Do I really have to explain that under the rules of BJ if you have 4 and the dealer busts YOU HAVE THE BEST HAND? Tell me how many times you have been paid off when after all the cards are dealt the dealer had a better hand than yours? I want to know this place.

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Exactly as many times as you have won in poker at showdown when opponent had better cards. At poker you can not win at showdown with worst cards and neither you can in blackjack. But in both games you can win without ever using your cards.