Dr. Bob

mattyg34 · #1 11-09-2007, 12:33 PM

Who is the Doc on this week, so i can bet against him.

alwardc4 · #2 11-09-2007, 04:15 PM

He is slow this week.

Betting against him is dumb.

MicroBob · #3 11-09-2007, 04:19 PM

Not necessarily.
After he moves the line 2 points the other way then I think betting with him can be kind of dumb.

alwardc4 · #4 11-09-2007, 04:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Not necessarily.
After he moves the line 2 points the other way then I think betting with him can be kind of dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sometimes it is. But rarely it is +EV to go against him. Even when he does move the line some.

MicroBob · #5 11-09-2007, 05:00 PM

I'm very much the amateur and square at a LOT of this stuff but I'm learning a little bit at a time and I think I'm not too far off on this:

If he likes Team A at -3 and I take Team B at +3 then I have gone against him.
But if I take that same Team B at +6 and even he wouldn't touch Team A at -6 then I'm not really sure I have 'gone against him'.

The change in lines does actually make a difference.

1 or 2 points movement in the line can make a huge difference. If you don't believe me then feel free to set up something where you have to sacrifice 1 point on every single game you play.

I don't think Dr. Bob could be successful if he had to give up 1 or 2 points on every single game and I don't think you could either.
Thus always taking the opposite side of Dr. Bob after he moves the line 1 or 2 points in the opposite direction could have value imo.

Nostrawho? · #6 11-09-2007, 05:07 PM

Well said, Bob, completely agree.

Ichabod1985 · #7 11-09-2007, 05:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not necessarily.
After he moves the line 2 points the other way then I think betting with him can be kind of dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sometimes it is. But rarely it is +EV to go against him. Even when he does move the line some.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rarely +EV to go against him? A large chunk of the units I've made so far this year have come from fading Dr Bob.

LogistX · #8 11-09-2007, 05:19 PM

Dr. Bob's NFL Picks

TooTallT · #9 11-09-2007, 07:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Rarely +EV to go against him? A large chunk of the units I've made so far this year have come from fading Dr Bob.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rarely +EV to wear blue socks? A large chunk of the units I made this year have been when I wear blue socks.

If you'd faded him last year you would've gotten killed.

I think Dr. Bob is a fairly solid 53-54% handicapper. He's got to move the line 7% for you to have an advantage against -110 (that's like moving an NCAA line through the 3). It happens, but he doesn't move most lines enough to do this arbitrarily.

DCJ311 · #10 11-09-2007, 07:18 PM

you could probably hold your nose and bet against any line of his that moves 1.5-2 pts and expect to make a decent profit, especially at sites that deal -105.