Live $1/$2 game, tricky AA, 250BB deep...

[cubase]

(**note**: results are in this post, if you are not interested in the results stop reading now)

Thanks for the thoughts. The check-call to river (providing he doesn't shove) seems like not a terrible option.

I think the only 9 he raises (based on his prior play) would be A9. He turns more into a calling station with more marginal TP's, and I'm not even sure he raises with A9, he probably just calls down with it.

I pretty much put him on 44/55/99/45 and a possible TT and less likely JJ (I think he probably re-raises with JJ, but I'm not sure because he didn't do a lot of raising pre-flop). Of the 3-bets pre that I saw the worst hand was KK.

I really didn't even consider him having a nine initially.

When the nine came out and he led, I was really confused by the bet.

My confusion combined with the growing pot with "just" an overpair led me to a fold, giving him credit for 9. I folded and showed, and he showed me his counterfeited 45.

Hindsight being as powerful as it is, it makes sense now. If he had 99/44/55/45 he of course raises the flop (which is consistent with his past play). He plays big hands fast on the flop. I'd seem him do it with other sets and two pair hands and overpairs.

When his "set" nuts on the turn, however, I believe he would check trying to induce a bet or a call from me on the river. Had I actually thought of this and considered what he was betting and then really considered how he would play his various nines, I probably could have come to the conclusion that he had TT, JJ, or the counterfeited two pair. I really hadn't seen him raise draws in a raised pot (he reserved this to in position in a checked around unraised pot).

I beat myself up over this hand quite a bit because I didn't remember Pokey's post ("THINK"). I think I got caught up in the growing pot size instead of accurately thinking about his ranges and past actions.

[Fulzgold]

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Why would you 3bet this flop? Theres hardly any draws and he folds alot of worse hands he might bet turn with.

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why would you call down all the way with one pair? you 3 bet this flop because his range is crushed given the action thus far IMO. especially since live players always think everyone has AK.

[john_bcfc]

I would 3-bet flop. If he shoves, i would call but wouldn't be happy about it. I think he is raising with draws, a9, k9s, QQ JJ 1010. I think you're ahead of his raising range, maybe not 4-betting range.

[Carte Blanche]

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Why would you 3bet this flop? Theres hardly any draws and he folds alot of worse hands he might bet turn with.

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why would you call down all the way with one pair? you 3 bet this flop because his range is crushed given the action thus far IMO. especially since live players always think everyone has AK.

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Because he will fold almost all hands thats behind. His range is crushed yes, but if you 3bet he will fold all bluffs and even hands like A9, but he will push sets and 2 pair hands. Theres no need to protect your hand better to let him think hes ahead or let him keep bluffing.

[Fulzgold]

I see what you're getting at Carte Blanche but would you keep betting here with A9 after getting called? I'd prefer to put pressure on him out of position, especially if we're going to call the turn for roughly the same price as our flop 3bet woulda been. It makes his hand more readable IMO. Many ways to skin a cat [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[patrick10]

Definately a tough spot

PF: no idea what his range is, but not 94/95. you say he wouldn't limp JJ, QQ, KK , which definately affects this hand because those are some of the liklely hands you could beat.

FLOP:
I think his range includes: 45, 44, 55, A9, 99, TT,
+ JJ, QQ, KK (even though you said he prob wouldn't limp those). It also may include some Suited Connectors with 9s. I don't see it deviating much from here, the only lkely draw would be 67 and that play (raising to 100 with a OE draw) is pretty crazy for B & M 1-2 if you ask me, so lets not include it.

I think your call on the flop is fine, as he could easily be betting out TT+ & A9 in addition to sets. SC with a 9 are less likely now, but still possible if he put you on a bluff with overcards and felt his TPwK was good

I can't really criticise the turn check, but i can say that imo B& M players tend to look at the $ amount of the raise, not proportion of the pot. So in their eyes, that Turn bet isn't small, its big or at least fine.

The 9 is a bad card for you, because all A9 and SC with 9s are now way ahead. The only hand it helps you against is 45.

I think you may have to FOLD, because i assume if you call this turn bet, you could def be playing for stacks on river.

[vixticator]

I play in a casino rarely but this is like never a bluff in my limited experience, abliet ALL at 200nl. You are dead here unless opponent is very dumb/drunk. Curse the dealer and fold. Oh forgot to add, 3bet flop for value and play for stacks. Unless I know the opponent is good, I assume they will felt A9, TT+ live regardless of how deep.

This is based on like 50 hours of live play at various casinos.