MLS Playoffs

[MediaPA]

Ok, I must admit that I don't know much about the teams in the MLS, but I was looking over the lines today. And it would seem that there has got to be some decent value in these playoff matches since Dallas and KC just need to scratch out draws in their matches to advance. Maybe this is just terrible logic, and please advise me if so. Even if one game draws, it's a virtual freeroll. However there are no guarantees.

Dallas is on the road versus Houston (Dallas up 1-0 on aggregate)
Kansas City is on the road versus Chivas (KC up 1-0 on aggregate)
New England is at home versus Red Bull (0-0)

Betting a 5 way parlay on these matches for draws/pointspread as well as a New England win will return a little over 51 units for 1 unit wagered.

4 way just for the draws, a little over 27 units.

2 way for each draw, over 4 units.

Again, am I being really ridiculously stupid.

[MediaPA]

Well, I bet them all. So hopefully I get at least one draw (KC/Chivas or Dallas/Houston) to make a small profit. Both draws - nice. The triple - great.

I think people are against parlays, but I still like it. I just wish the matches were in a different order so I could hedge the NE win if I get two draws (which I probably wouldn't).

After a bit more analysis - it seems Dallas is terrible at managing draws 13-12-5. Houston 15-8-7. Houston leads the series 3-1-1 (Houston has allowed 2 goals in these matches). Bad for me except that Dallas did get their first win (1-0) in the first leg.

Chivas is 15-7-8. KC is 11-12-7. KC is up 2-1, home team has won each match. All games were 1 goal games. Only game that a team got shut out was Chivas in the first leg (1-0).

NE is 14-8-8 and NY is 12-11-7. NE is up 2-0-2 this season. They won the only match played at home. NE is 7-0-3 in home playoff games. I might bet this straight up for a win depending how tonight goes. NE has a lot of experience up top and is fairly solid overall. Red Bull can be explosive with Altidore, Angel and Doe. Neither team appears to be in great form.

Oh well. Cheer for a miracle.

Total - 4u wagered to win 4.3u, 4.2u, 27.2u, 51.8u (draw, draw, 2 draws, 2 draws & NE win)

[mmbt0ne]

MPA,

I don't really understand soccer betting, but probably watch more MLS than anyone else on these boards, so gl!

I think FCD going down a man in the 47th is going to kill you though.

[MediaPA]

Yeah, I can't watch it unfortunately. I don't understand it either, but getting 4-1 odds betting the draw when a team is up 1-0 on aggregate should have a positive expectation (but then again it's the MLS).

Seemed like a good bet. Still like the thought. Hopefully KC/Chivas will work out for me. I'm debating putting some money on the Revolution to win tomorrow since these parlays are gone (I'll still be up a unit if KC manages a draw). Giving up 2 goals in 6 minutes is pretty terrible. I need to see the highlights.

[mmbt0ne]

ZOMFG, just looked at bodog and KC +1 -160 vs Chivas is RIDICULOUSLY great. Chivas is missing both leading scorers (Razov and Galindo) and have an inflated record due to being great at home. However, even though they're great there they still lost to a very mediocre KC team 1-0 w/o their starting 2 forwards.

I would probably also get on KC +450 moneyline. I would be very surprised if they sat around in a tie game just trying to survive the aggregate.

[MediaPA]

Yeah, about the only thing that I notice is that anyone who doesn't parlay the draw odds (+225) with the spread is an idiot. (+508) This is looking at the Red Bull/Revolution match.

[mmbt0ne]

Well, since these last two goals from Houston came in extra time I guess you pushed your +1 bet, yes?

Where are you getting your odds?

[MediaPA]

The draw odds, I'm getting by parlaying the draw with the point spread on bodog.

I parlayed these just to have the draw odds, so the +1 didn't help me. Probably not smart, but it seemed logical at the time.

[hedgie43]

Bodog allows you to parlay the draw with the spread? WTF?

[MediaPA]

Hmm, guess I should have kept that to myself. See what not having a clue can accomplish/discover.

Is that why I was ignored? Did my idea seem completely idiotic/impossible.