choose my action, deep multiway

[TxRedMan]

5/10

MP has $2600, BB has $3300, I cover.

MP limps, I raise to $40 with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], BB calls, MP raises to $120, I call, BB calls.

Flop

A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks, MP checks, I check (this is standard for me this deep, anyone disagree?)

Turn

6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB bets $300, MP calls $300...

I think I can clean up some outs and I've got good fold equity here if I raise, and I feel like i've usually got >10 outs when I'm behind, but i'm more interested in folding out medium hearts/straight draws and AK.


Call or pot it?

For arguements sake, lets say that both players are fairly standard players but both tighten up some when they get deep, but they're not weak tight by any means. I think the BB has AK and 33 in his hand a lot here, and I think MP's hand will have QJT w/ hearts a fair amount as well, but I'm confused by his flop check.

I also dont think I can extract much if I make the nut flush (unless QcXc is out, which would likely call a near PSB) and dont feel comfortable betting the river if I catch a heart or a six, similarly I dont want to pay off when I make one of my non nut hands. Both of these players are likely to bet half pot with second, third, and fourth nut flush type hands.


-Tex

[Ribbo]

Nice omaha/8 hand, shame you're playing omaha.

The only reason you have a tough decision to make here is your poor choice of hand selection preflop. If you manage to improve that aspect of your game, i'm sure you will do a lot better at the tables.

[Runner Runner]

The more FE you have, the more likely you should be to raise obviously. The more you think you can extract on the river (or not lose on the river) the more you should consider just calling.

Questions you should ask yourself:

Would they think you would play KK or even AA like this? If not, FE goes down quite a bit.

Is a 6 high flush small enough 3 way that you can fold to 1/2 pot bet against these guys? 3 way, I think so.

I think calling's best.

[gordo16]

I bet out on the flop, because at least a flat flop call from one of the villain's will most likely still give you position on the turn where you can choose to check for a free flush card or continue betting to try and represent top 2, etc but sitll get paid if you hit the nut club or straight on the river.

[wazz]

Two flush draws, one of which to the nuts, a gutshot, and aces up? Repot till the cows come home.

I like the flop check btw.

[Buzz]

Tex - What a nice starting hand for Omaha-8! You know a lot more about these things than I do, but it seems to me to lack sufficient high card strength to be a nice starting hand for Omaha-high.

At any rate, here you are on the turn with various possibilities.

If one of your opponents holds AKYZ, and the other holds better hearts than you, then I think you're in second place, behind AKYZ. (45 to 24 to 31). (I'm listing you last each time).

But if one of your opponents holds AKYZ (but not the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) and the other just has a good straight draw like QJT9-rainbow, then you're ahead. (39 to 13 to 48).

If we just change the AKYZ to include the king of hearts and leave everything else the same, you're back in second place. (44 to 13 to 43).

Let’s say an average might be 43 to 17 to 41, something like that.
---
That last sim, but with the QJT9 holding opponent knocked out, in other words, heads-up against AKYZ with the king of hearts, then you're in second place. 57 to 43.

Lastly, heads-up against AKYZ without the king of hearts, you're in second place. 52 to 48.

Let’s say an average might be 54 to 46, something like that.
---
If you just call,
you net 900*41/101-300*60/101
365.35-178.22 = +$187.13 as a sort of average.

If you pot it and get called by both opponents,
you net 3300*51/101–1500*60/101
1666.34-891.09 = $775.25 as a sort of average.

If you pot it and get called by one opponent,
you net 1800*46/100–1500*54/100
828-810 = $18 as a sort of average.

The numbers are admittedly very crude, Tex, but we don’t know exactly what cards your opponents hold or what the possible flush draws against you are. (Obviously what to do depends on exactly what cards the third opponent holds). But at any rate, assuming the third opponent holds a relatively weak draw, it looks like you should want to get more money into the pot without knocking out your third opponent.

I don’t know how to do that. Maybe raise by another $300? (The downside is if the player with the AKYZ pots it, knocking out the weak draw, you don’t do as well as just checking). I think the skill in this game is knowing your opponents well enough to know when you can up the ante and still keep the weak draws involved in the hand, and obviously that’s tough to know when you have two opponents.

Buzz

[cts]

anyone telling you preflop is bad... lol

i'd def bet the flop here, your hand isn't that great and there is merit to just taking down the pot here, no one else has the nuts so you're not getting checkraised often etc

turn i'd probably raise but i don't think calling is bad and raising may be adding a lot of variance for a small amount of ev this deep

[TheRempel]

The only reason I ever just call the turn is if either of the players will stack off really light on the river if I nut up. Otherwise shoveapalooza.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
Two flush draws, one of which to the nuts, a gutshot, and aces up? Repot till the cows come home.

I like the flop check btw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is why Wazz went busto.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
The only reason I ever just call the turn is if either of the players will stack off really light on the river if I nut up. Otherwise shoveapalooza.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is why Rempel went busto.