i have a draw, 25/50 nl live--opinions on all streets welcome

[dlpnyc21]

Hand from a live game. 20kish effective stacks. Villain in the hand is one of the biggest winners in nyc, tough player who has continually gotten the best of me in the past by making big value bets (ron for anyone who plays high stakes in nyc, commerce, or las vegas). A hand from the last session we played each other was one where someone raised a limper pre to 200, I called btn with AJo, Ron calls from SB limper calls. Flop comes AQ3 one diamond, chks to me I chk. Turn is the 6d, now 3d 6d on the board, chks to me again I bet 800, ron chk raises AI for like 4.5k more. I look him up he is of course nutted and has 333. Anyways, major point of the villain is that he KNOWS I like to call him down, making him bluff way less often against me. Villains image of me is probably that of a thinking player but one who pays him off like a slot machine.

Advice on all streets welcome (each street I felt was worse than the next). Maybe one limper, Villain makes it 300 to go on in the CO I call from the BTN with Q10hh. Reraising here isn't terrible, and I do it sometimes, but it increases the variance a lot and I'm not sure he will fold to me (I had actually bluffed him off of a pot earlier in a reraised pot but he didn't know I was blufffing). One blind and the limper calls.

(1200). Flop comes 8h 7h 6x. I have Q10hh. Everyone checks to him and he bets 1k. I have seen him give up a lot in spots where he missed the flop and the field is >3 (after being the PFR). I think you can definitely make arguments for raising here to like 3.5k (get the limper and blind to fold a better hand, get a free river card from the villain), but I decided I also didn't want to play a really big pot here with my draw, so I flatted the 1k. Mistake??

(3200). Turn is an offsuit Q. Now the board is Q876, two hearts. My hand has improved, but I still can't be sure if I have the best hand or the best draw. He bets 3k. When he bets 3k here, I am nearly certain he has a strong hand, although I think his range is anywhere from an overpair to two pair to a set to a combo draw (maybe even a naked flush draw but this is unlikely). I eyeball his stack and he has approximately 15k left after his bet. What is the right play here and why? If I raise, is he ever folding a better hand? How much would I raise to (of course if I raise I am calling a shove). I really do not think he would ever fold two pair or greater, an overpair he can possibly get away from but that is also unlikely given that I just called the flop.

I decided to donk around and call.

(9200) River is the 2h. He stacks up all his chips, thinks for a bit, and overbet shoves 14.6k total. When I was thinking about the river and I saw the flush peel, I thought I would raise his bet AI if he bet something like 8k. To explain something, in my experience playing deep stacked live, a river overbet like this is almost NEVER a bluff, and given that he knows I love to call him down (and can even call him down with two pair here a fair amount of time). he can't really be bluffing. Also, it certainly looks like I could have been flushing given the action.

Now, I know everyone here is going to say fist-pump and call the river, so I guess that's ok--I mean, he could have a lower flush I guess?

So my questions really refer to the two prior streets. If anyone finds a fold on the river, please say why, my physical read of him (he didn't announce all in he just stacked and shoved, then looked up and off into the distance--he was extremely calm) was that he was absolutely not bluffing. I thought he pretty much had to have a flush there. However, I would mainly like to hear about the flop/turn.

Thanks,

dlpnyc21

[ahnuld]

first two streets look fine. maybe raise flop, but calling turn looks better than raising once the queen comes. On the river of course you call. You said yourself he wont always bet a bare flush draw on the turn and while he could have something like A9s or K9s, he could also have any 9hxh, especially J9hh. And I doubt the read of you like to call him down matters much here. if anything that makes it more likely he is betting any flush this way since he might figure you would call with 2 pair +.

[fslexcduck]

you played this well, now call instantly.

just think, if you happen to lose, you can post it in hsnl asking about the strategy of it then change the results when everyone accuses you of being results oriented. that DEFINITELY makes it a call [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[KRANTZ]

raise the flop, you are 400bb deep in position with a good draw

the river seems like a trivially easy fold assuming your read is right (you look like a station and overbets are almost NEVER bluffs)

[El Diablo]

dlp,

"If anyone finds a fold on the river, please say why"

It's only worth responding to a post like this if we assume what you write is valid.

"in my experience ... a river overbet like this is almost NEVER a bluff"

"he knows I love to call him down"

"he can't really be bluffing."

"it certainly looks like I could have been flushing given the action."

"my physical read of him ... was that he was absolutely not bluffing."

"he pretty much had to have a flush there."

In which case, this is an easy fold.

[fslexcduck]

i don't think the river is a fold because sometimes when i think someone's a calling station i'll just go all in if i want to bluff them rather than betting pot or less. and i don't think it looks like dave has a flush here. but sure if your read is "he looked like he had a flush" and that's accurate then fine fold whatever, but that's a pretty retarded thing to say, even coming from someone who plays a lot of live poker.

[jcmoussa]

Does this overbet mean the nuts though? im a donkey, i call here after the line you took.

[dlpnyc21]

[ QUOTE ]
dlp,

"If anyone finds a fold on the river, please say why"

It's only worth responding to a post like this if we assume what you write is valid.

"in my experience ... a river overbet like this is almost NEVER a bluff"

"he knows I love to call him down"

"he can't really be bluffing."

"it certainly looks like I could have been flushing given the action."

"my physical read of him ... was that he was absolutely not bluffing."

"he pretty much had to have a flush there."

In which case, this is an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

the problem with this--is that he could think j9hh is the nutter butters, similarly with 9xhh, or 5xhh, no? however, i am not sure he would shove with 9xhh--wouldn't he just bet like 7-8k?

[dlpnyc21]

[ QUOTE ]
raise the flop, you are 400bb deep in position with a good draw

the river seems like a trivially easy fold assuming your read is right (you look like a station and overbets are almost NEVER bluffs)

[/ QUOTE ]

J,
if you are raising this flop, I assume it's to something like 3.5k. What are you doing then if he raises to 9k? Shoving, folding, or calling? I'm not saying it's wrong to raise here, I definitely contemplated it, it's just that I wasn't sure what to do if he reraised (I guess it's an ez fold??). Thanks,
dlpnyc21

[fslexcduck]

[ QUOTE ]

the problem with this--is that he could think j9hh is the nutter butters, similarly with 9xhh, or 5xhh, no? however, i am not sure he would shove with 9xhh--wouldn't he just bet like 7-8k?

[/ QUOTE ]

it's just a math problem at that point and there are way way way more flushes that beat you that he could feasibly have than flushes you beat. assuming he might raise all suited aces, KJhh, K9hh, then only like J9hh and maybe like 54hh or 53hh