|
|
#22
07-06-2007, 01:34 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: First good idea
Looks like it's up about 33% since this thread started, though you're probably averaged in a bit. How long of a hold is this considered.
|
|
#23
07-06-2007, 01:38 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: First good idea
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] alright, I have permission to post the ticker. We are all full. Ticker is dsup. Krishan [/ QUOTE ] what is your average cost per share? Barron [/ QUOTE ] 12.42 I think SM has a lower average as he didn't buy after our visit like I recommended. Krishan
|
|
#24
07-06-2007, 01:41 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: First good idea
[ QUOTE ]
Looks like it's up about 33% since this thread started, though you're probably averaged in a bit. How long of a hold is this considered. [/ QUOTE ] SM has no tax shelters so he really tries to get long term on all of his significant position. Currently I feel good through 2008. I will be covering this stock and will stay on top of results. I personally think the short term (Q2 reporting) 2 months looks very strong. I took a slightly larger position as a short term trade in a tax deferred account. Krishan
|
|
#25
07-06-2007, 01:44 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: First good idea
No option chain. Booooooo.
|
|
#26
07-06-2007, 01:45 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: First good idea
12.42?? It hit that price early June. You waited that long?
|
|
#28
07-06-2007, 02:00 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: First good idea
Skimming through their financials I don't see much that I really like. Care to delve in at all into what makes this your "First good idead"?
Edited to add: You must really like it for some reason as it's up the 33% since the Q1 call...
|
|
#29
07-06-2007, 02:04 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: First good idea
[ QUOTE ]
Skimming through their financials I don't see much that I really like. Care to delve in at all into what makes this your "First good idead"? [/ QUOTE ] Yeah you can't look at this historically and get much of a feel for whats really happening. It's a turnaround where a lot was broken and a material amount has been fixed. The thesis revolves around GM improvement in the product segment improving dramatically. Management has guided to 1-2% per year but has talked about "smashing" that target. Q1 is seasonally weak (and up against a tough comp yoy) and they showed huge margin improvements. Krishan
|
|
#30
07-06-2007, 07:23 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: First good idea
[ QUOTE ]
12.42?? It hit that price early June. You waited that long? [/ QUOTE ] My cost is around $11.50 I think (maybe slightly more because, contrary to what Krishan said, I did buy more after we saw them). I bought my first shares around $10.50 and was buying pretty much every day for weeks. The stock was very thinly traded, but has since started to pick up. Its a pretty simple thesis 1) Balance sheet is being refi'd at attractive rates (down from 11.5%) as I write this. 2) This is a classic example of a "rollup" that was not well run and is now being fixed. Its a good, steady product set (stuff that is consumed in the laying of concrete, primarily). They have only 7-8% residential exposure. Rest is 1/3 each commercial (office buildings), govt infrastructure (hwy and bridges), and institutional (steady biz...hospitals, universities, etc). 3) They have NOLs and should crap cash. We think they have a shot at $2/shr in FCF in 2008. Sorry couldn't post earlier...couldn't do that until we were totally finished buying. New CFO and CEO seem very focused and talented. I really don't think there is much downside here. The stock is maybe 5.5x our thoughts on EBITDA for 2008. This is too cheap. Every turn (i.e. multiple point) of ebitda is $5 per share. Apollo, a buyout shop, owns half of this. For perpective, they did this deal in 2000 and their cost is around $13.50 a share...
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
