i have a draw, 25/50 nl live--opinions on all streets welcome - Page 5

MYNAMEIZGREG · #41 09-08-2007, 10:35 PM

I just think that the "I look like I'm on a FD" isn't strong enough to make this a fold on its own. Also, I don't know live poker that well, but can you be that good where I good live player cannot make you think he isn't bluffing, but acutally be bluffing?

dlpnyc21 · #42 09-08-2007, 10:41 PM

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I just think that the "I look like I'm on a FD" isn't strong enough to make this a fold on its own. Also, I don't know live poker that well, but can you be that good where I good live player cannot make you think he isn't bluffing, but acutally be bluffing?

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no, that alone certainly doesn't make this a fold. and this live villain in particular (one of the biggest winners in nyc, and a huge winner at the wsop in the big NL games this summer) can CERTAINLY manipulate/do reverse tells, and I have seen him do this on multiple occasions. I tried a few things to get whatever I could out of him, and every instinct i had told me he wasn't bluffing. if I established that he wasn't bluffing, the next question in my mind was obviously what hands could he be value betting. I logic'ed out given what it looked like I had that he wouldn't bet like this with a straight/set (this might be the weakest part of my logic), and in game time (without the ability of being able to pokerstove the flushes that I beat, I figured he could just as easily have J9hh and 9xhh as he could have A9hh or K9hh. However, when you think about it a little more (hard for me to do in the moment) you realize the underlying math probably dictates a fold given my read.

I consider myself pretty good at reading others and rely on my physical/tempo reads a lot live, and I tried to convey in my OP that my physical read was that he was not bluffing, as he was extremely calm, didn't hastily announce all in, rather took the time to stack his chips and silently pushed them all forward, and then he did the very weird thing of tilting his head slightly up and to the side, almost as if he was staring off into space.

edit: i will also add that a reason i didn't raise the turn was because i thought he was very strong given tempo/way he bet/physical read.

MYNAMEIZGREG · #43 09-08-2007, 11:31 PM

Do you think he thinks you hate him and will call in -ev situations to spite him? For instance, with a FD on the turn. Because, if you are not spite calling him with a bare fd, you also should have a pair or straight draw, so this is something to consider as well

jcmoussa · #44 09-12-2007, 09:07 AM

results?

ceczar · #45 09-12-2007, 09:34 AM

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results?

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hero tanked for a couple minutes before calling, villain had the nuts.

Kirkrrr · #46 09-12-2007, 10:05 AM

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results?

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Ron's a tough SOB, curious to hear results as well.

Kirk

Perestroika · #47 09-12-2007, 02:11 PM

If you did fold and didn't show make sure mods delete this thread before Ron reads it.

ceczar · #48 09-12-2007, 03:14 PM

i was being serious in my response earlier this morning. i was there. he called after thinking for a long time, and ron had the nuts.

dlpnyc21 · #49 09-12-2007, 05:34 PM

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results?

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Ron's a tough SOB, curious to hear results as well.

Kirk

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Ron is one of the biggest winners in nyc over the past year and has killed the big vegas games as well. He is v. tough. Regardless, as I said in my OP, I was looking more for feedback on the flop/turn, assuming, like always, everyone would say fist-pump call the river. Unfortunately, I was there and just based on my physical read I knew he wasn't bluffing. In my mind at the moment, I thought he might have as many combos of 5hxh and 9hxh as he would have of Khxh, Ahxh, but I guess that thinking was pretty mathematically flawed. Oh well, he had A9hh.

tsarast · #50 09-13-2007, 06:24 AM

Given everything... I think you can fold the river. I'm not saying it's easy... but all the analysis presented in this post leads to that conclusion. He almost HAS to have a flush here. I think a FD is very easily in your range, and I think the queen hitting the turn increases the likelihood that a flush is in your range on the river (you now call all Q high fd's on the turn). Since villain probably does not think you will fold a flush here (and that you hate folding in general), then this tough villain is probably almost never bluffing here: FOLD. Extremely tough spot though, it's hard to fold the 3rd nuts.

I think the turn is a raise... you said his range is Combo flush draws (all of which you beat), overpairs, two pair, sets, straight. If villain sees you as tricky LAG, then i'm sure he puts a lot of strong hands in your range to smoothcall/sandbag flop (including set, straight), and I think villain folds overpairs and two pairs on the turn most of the time (how many extremely winning players stack off with two pair in this pot?). The only way he plays those hands is if he makes a good read, and if so, you have a lot of outs against either of them. He also likely folds a flush draw... you lose equity against smaller fd's, but gain equity against larger fd's... given that he likely WILL NOT BLUFF you on the river, you have to think that you don't lose out much equity here by calling and catching a bluff, or at least not as much as against other players. He probably plays a set or def. a straight for stacks on the turn, but... at this point, so what? Your fold equity + suckouts against set/straight makes this a solid raise imo.