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Old 10-15-2007, 06:34 PM
T. Chance T. Chance is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 14
Default $15 Horse MTT nut low and low flush on a paired board

Hi,

This is my first post here, so first I wanted to thank everybody who is posting here. I've been reading you more and more lately, and it certainly improved my game.

I don't know if I should have posted this in the MTT section, but it has more to do with LO8 strategy than with MTT strategy.

The hand in itself may not be really interesting, since the betting would probably have been capped on all street, anyway, but it shows the kind of problem I'm often facing on the river.

This hand occurs in a $15 Horse MTT on Poker Stars and it's one of the first Omaha hands, so I don't have much reads on my opponents at that point. Later, i'll find that BB is very loose and agressive, and I don't think he has any clue on how to play most games (especially stud). The other two are tight and passive I think.

PokerStars (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Preflop: hero is CO with , , , . SB posts a blind of 15.
3 folds, MP2 calls, hero raises, Button calls, 1 fold, BB raises, MP2 calls, hero calls, Button raises, BB calls, MP2 calls, hero calls.

Flop: , , (4 players)
BB bets, MP2 calls, hero calls, Button raises, BB raises, MP2 calls, hero raises, Button calls, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (4 players)
BB bets, MP2 calls, hero raises, Button calls, BB raises, MP2 calls, hero raises, Button calls, BB calls, MP2 calls.

River: (4 players)
BB bets, MP2 calls, hero raises, Button calls, BB raises, MP2 folds, hero calls, Button raises, BB calls, hero calls.

On the flop, I first call because I strongly suspect I'm not the only nut low around, so my first concern was to keep the button in the pot. Then he raised, so I guessed I could safely cap the bet while keeping all my opponents around.
My main question though is on the river.
Anybody with a set has just made a full house, and anybody could have a better flush than mine, even somebody with just a pair on the flop might have made a full house.
I'm also pretty sure there is at least one other nut low, and very likely there's two of them. When the betting first gets to me, I might get 7/8thed (would you say 7/8thed ?). More likely, chances are, I'm either winning 1/6th of the pot or 3 third of it. Do you think it is still right to bet ?
When the betting comes back to me one villain has folded, should I cap ?
More generally, I often have troubles deciding on the river wether I should bet or not when I'm not playing for some unusual fraction of the pot against several players.
Is there some intuitive way to know this sort of things ?

Thank you for reading this.
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