200 NL: Folding my set deep

[AcesUp2121]

200 6 max on Stars. Villain is unknown. Note that 9 times out of 10 I am raising this flop. I felt that villain was very weak, however. Does my underrepping my hand here turn this river into a call?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($78.40)
SB ($198)
BB ($168.70)
UTG ($325.25)
Hero ($421.85)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9, 9.
UTG raises to $8, Hero calls $8, 3 folds.

Flop: ($19) K, 7, 9 (2 players)
UTG bets $10, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($39) Q (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $25, UTG calls $25.

River: ($89) A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $55, UTG raises to $282.25, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $199

[djj6835]

This seems like an easy call to me. Looks more like AK/AQ than TJ or a bigger set.

[fitnessfreak]

i honestly think you should be raising this flop 10 out of 10 as opposed to 9. its very drawy and theres a good chance villain has caught some piece of it.

also, bet more on turn and river. as played, itd be very useful to have an idea of how the villain plays or some of his stats. its close against an unknown, but you really should be correcting your play on the earlier streets. this hand was pretty much butchered.

[RocktheCasbah]

mmm... I kinda torn on this one. looks like JT, but could also be rivered aces up. I always cautious w deep stacks, and villain is unknown.

Really need a read, but villain's river line is super strong. Man I would call but expect to see nuts here quite often IME

BTW RAISE FLOP

[scv]

Well, raise flop. But you know that allready. You are deep and you really want to build a pot right now. Also bet more on turn.

Unless he's really bluffy I'd also fold that cr on river. It really looks like the nuts to me.

[SSES]

terrible imo.

due to the high chance of you having a flush draw, vil should be raising TJ/sets on the turn.

river is a very easy call

also, both bets should be slightly bigger imo

[RocktheCasbah]

[ QUOTE ]
due to the high chance of you having a flush draw, vil should be raising TJ/sets on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

you would expect JT to bet/riase turn here. Its not impossible, but just odd for villain to cbet, hit an inside straight, then slow down on turn.

a decent player w JT would jam turn. this make it easier to call river

[scv]

[ QUOTE ]

river is a very easy call


[/ QUOTE ]

I cant see anyone c/r this river with a worse hand for value. Villain plays this hand wierd whatever he has but I still dont think this river is a bluff.

[SinkRox]

Your bet sizing is very small. Obv you need to raise the flop. Aside from that you should be raising close to pot sized on such a drawy board, then come the river his shove will likely be around a min raise and you can make the crying call easily.

[SinkRox]

scv, villains river shove can be with a worse hand (eg top2) if he's a bad enough player.