Rivered top boat, checkraise, or bet against TAG

[tarcards]

28/20/2.0 wtsd 37


6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4SB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Planning to checkraise most turns.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6BB, 2 players)

I am considering betting versus checkraisng.

[milesdyson]

Given the rest of the hand (which I'm unsure about) it looks good. He can definitely have ace high here which calls but does not bet. He will probably raise 6x.

[wackjob]

c/r town for me. if he checks behind, I'm gonna take careful notes.

[sweetjazz]

[ QUOTE ]
He will probably raise 6x.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, but probably true.

[tarcards]

ok given my read, I think that he will just call if I bet into him and he has 6x, he will call with any ace (other than AJ) and he will bet and call a checkraise with any 6.

He will also check behind pocket pairs, and K high, which bost of he will call a single bet with.

So should I bet, or checkraise, and How do I decide?

FWIW If he has a counterfitted hand, and is playing the board, A very very vague estimate is that he bluffs 70% of the time if he is checked to.

[sweetjazz]

Most TAGs 3-bet the vast majority of their PPs and Ax hands preflop. (Some smooth call and raise most flops, but this seems to be the exception to the rule.) On the other hand, most TAGs call with a lot of 6x hands. Thus I think 6x is likely and if you believe he has enough sense not to raise 6x (or at least not call a 3bet if he does raise), then check/raising looks best to me.

It's close though.

[milesdyson]

I don't see him having uncounterfeited pocket pairs very often, and I don't see why he would check behind with these. I also think there is a decent chance of inducing a WTF raise here because your hand really looks like nothing (and definitely not ace high).

How do you figure out what you should do? Estimate his range and make assumptions about what he does with each hand in it, and do the math. I think getting the one bet from ace high and possibly three from 6x are the most important things to worry about here. I don't think you're missing out on much by not letting him bluff again. The board is double paired now so he should just admit defeat and save a bet.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
Given the rest of the hand (which I'm unsure about)

[/ QUOTE ]

Miles,

Up to the river what would you change about how hero played the hand and why?

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Given the rest of the hand (which I'm unsure about)

[/ QUOTE ]

Miles,

Up to the river what would you change about how hero played the hand and why?

[/ QUOTE ]
Well I like how he played his hand up until the river, but that's because the turn was a 6. His original plan was to call and check raise most turns, and that's where I have concerns. I worry that our hand is not strong enough to do this (the guy might actually fold worse pairs).

[tarcards]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Given the rest of the hand (which I'm unsure about)

[/ QUOTE ]

Miles,

Up to the river what would you change about how hero played the hand and why?

[/ QUOTE ]
Well I like how he played his hand up until the river, but that's because the turn was a 6. His original plan was to call and check raise most turns, and that's where I have concerns. I worry that our hand is not strong enough to do this (the guy might actually fold worse pairs).

[/ QUOTE ]

The guy might actualy fold worse pairs? what does that have to do with the fact that our hand "isn't strong enough" to c/r the turn?