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Old 11-25-2007, 08:42 PM
iggymcfly iggymcfly is offline
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Default NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)

OK, in sticking with my plan, let's have a new thread for discussing the real lines the sportsbooks have put out that are bettable.

The following lines appear to have some value to me:

Tennessee +7.5- LSU hasn't beaten a team with a winning record by this many points since they played Va. Tech in Week 2. Are they really going to pick the week after they got eliminated from the national championship race for their best performance since September?

Washington +12: Sagarin has Hawaii 3.5 points better on a neutral field. This looks like a ton of points for a Hawaii team that's only had one good game this year.

I also find the BC line kind of strange. There's no adjustment for BC's road win over VT a month and a half ago? Really? I'm not sure where the value is, but I was quite surprised to see this line over a field goal.
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  #2  
Old 11-25-2007, 08:44 PM
bills217 bills217 is offline
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Default Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)

I agree with you on Washington and BC. Considering Pitt, although waiting for a better number.

Also, Rutgers +3.
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  #3  
Old 11-25-2007, 08:47 PM
iggymcfly iggymcfly is offline
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Default Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)

I was actually thinking that it might be a good plan to bet WVU early, just looking for a middle. I bet we see at least 28.5 by gametime and it could go as high as 30.
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Old 11-25-2007, 09:47 PM
bills217 bills217 is offline
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Default Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)

Ehhh...Washington State's QB just went 27/40, 399 yds, 5 TD against the Washington pass defense...that cannot bode well.

Also, motivational factors favor Hawaii greatly. That and the extra special HFA and I may just sit this one out.
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  #5  
Old 11-25-2007, 09:56 PM
smbruin22 smbruin22 is offline
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Default Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)

[ QUOTE ]
Ehhh...Washington State's QB just went 27/40, 399 yds, 5 TD against the Washington pass defense...that cannot bode well.

Also, motivational factors favor Hawaii greatly. That and the extra special HFA and I may just sit this one out.

[/ QUOTE ]

jake locker seems to have slowed down alot.... but TB (rankin??) was picking up slack.

i like hawaii huge in this game.
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  #6  
Old 11-25-2007, 10:45 PM
Happydaz Happydaz is offline
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Default Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)

Iggy -

Nice job on calling the WVU line from the other thread, you were right on the money (the problem with your dual thread idea, by the way, is I could just make this comment in the other thread but then it perpetuates the other thread and pretty soon we have people posting current line info into it.)

I like your Tennessee pick a lot. I don't like Washington. Hawaii looked pretty decent last week, this week is unlikely to produce a letdown effect, Washington got beat in its rivalry with WSU, the team has nothing to play for and Willingham has every incentive to keep Locker healthy (which means perhaps not playing him for the whole game.) Unless you think Willingham has to win this one to keep from getting fired, and I don't think the outcome matters much one way or the other.

The VT line seems right, and I think taking VT here would be a good plan. I'd put more weight on the 58 minutes when VT dominated then the 2 where BC made a last-ditch comeback.
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  #7  
Old 11-25-2007, 11:03 PM
Troll_Inc Troll_Inc is offline
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Default Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)

What are the chances of this avatar parlay hitting?

Either:

1) Oklahoma beats Mizzou

or

2) Two of three of the three following teams win:
V Tech beats BC
Arizona beats Arizona State
Washington beats Hawaii
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  #8  
Old 11-25-2007, 11:05 PM
hedgie43 hedgie43 is offline
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Default Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)

Uh, 1 is far superior. Oklahoma is a fav over Mizzou and rightly so.
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  #9  
Old 11-25-2007, 11:21 PM
bills217 bills217 is offline
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Default Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)

Anybody else think UCLA may be a value at 18.5 in a rivalry game?

I also lean Arizona State at -7. I think Arizona may be getting too much credit for their flukefest Oregon victory.

Man I miss midseason when there were more and bigger values available.
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  #10  
Old 11-25-2007, 11:30 PM
Troll_Inc Troll_Inc is offline
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Default Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)

[ QUOTE ]
Uh, 1 is far superior. Oklahoma is a fav over Mizzou and rightly so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I win the parlay if either 1 OR 2 hits.

So 1 by itself is >50% to hit.
What % of the time will #2 be true?
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