Knowing your math. Basic draws.

[BobboFitos]

Three somewhat common occurrences. I love making these quizzes and its been a little while since my last one. I'm going to sleep in a little bit so if this attracts any attention I'll post my thoughts. I'm sure when I have a date established with my book being published these types of (self congratulatory/promotionary) posts will increase in frequency. That said, feel free to argue with any play up to the decision but understand that the hand is played largely how I would've played it. Obviously I am not egotistical to assume that is the "only" way the hand can be played, or the optimal way, but just be content knowing that I play it that way. Since this is SSNL, we'll assume the game is NL200 6max.

#1. We're in the CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], we (200, unknown image) raise to 8 pf. BB (245, you have a few notes/stats but just a typical player with somewhat loose TAG stats) defends his blind. Flop (~17 minus rake) comes A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], checked to us, we bet 12, BB check raises to 32 total. We call. Turn (80) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] villain bets 40. What do we do?

#2. We are UTG and pick up AQo, suits irrelevant. We (200, unknown to these players) make it 8, button ("defends his button religiously" but a tag/lag with 245) calls.
Sub Q: If this player 3bets to 25 total, what's our standard play?
Any case, flop (~19) comes T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], we bet 12, villain calls. Turn (43) comes a blank, 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. What's our play? If we check, villain bets 25. What's our play then?

#3. A bad player (140, very loose passive) limps UTG, and we (240) isolate raise 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the button to 10 total. BB cold calls, as does the limper. (BB has 383 and is a nit where this cold call is AQ-AT, JJ-22, possibly a little wider range given UTG's presence, but not looser then that). Flop (~30) comes 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and they check to us. We timebank a little bit contemplating a cbet (validity in checking) but opt to fire away with 23. BB calls, and UTG folds. Ok, lost the bad player, got the good player, terrific. Turn (~76) comes the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and BB bets 44. What do we do?

[tozzy]

im on a hurry so just reading it fast:
#1 meh, i just typed 'fold' but honestly, i like pushing here. the 2d just opened up some draws for him, and we still can represent our ace quite well. also we have outs.

#2 id like some stats on how he reacts to contibets, however, the 3 did not change the board. yeah, some backdoors and stuff, but we still cant represent anymore than we did on the flop. if he likes floating/calling draws i 2nd barrel here, if he doesnt, i c/f.
subq: if he repops from the button, once again, its up to stats, if hes like 27/24 type i like to call and stack off on almost any Ahi or Qhi flops, if hes more reasonable, i fold cause AQo is too marginal a hand to play it oop against a tag - at least for me.

#3 I fold. A nit is not going to represent something he hasnt got. He has the king/something even stronger almost always and im drawing to 6 cards that probably wont kill my/the action. im never getting odds for this, also, i suspect his WTS is reasonable, hes not going to pay us off unless he has a set here.


oh, im always folding. this cant be good.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]

oh, im always folding. this cant be good.

[/ QUOTE ]
it could be very good, but you may want to consider stacks, odds, and hand ranges for why you're folding. also:

[ QUOTE ]
subq: if he repops from the button, once again, its up to stats, if hes like 27/24 type

[/ QUOTE ]
Id label a tag/lag as something like 24/20 or so, vpip higher then 22 for sure and pfr close to vpip.

[Im_a_retard]

1 - Folding/shoving are both ok. Although an arguement can be made for calling if we plan bruffing diamond rivers (although I wouldn't usually, people never believe backdoored-hands, hence their inherent value).

3:1 on the call, we have like ~20% equity (9 outs once) - how much more would we need to win on the river for the turn call to be +EV?

2 - c/f and cr both have merit. The 3s is a relatively [censored] card to 2nd barrel on.

When he bets it's 43:25 = 1.72:1 to us. We have 4 nut outs which is around 15% equity (the trouble I am having here is assessing our overcad outs - assigning 6 more pure outs to our AQ here seems rather over-zealous).

3 - I like a flop check, seeing as though we didn't... I think a fold is good here; with two of our outs tainted I don't think we have as high implied odds if we hit to stack him.

[AsydRayne]

#1: Usually fold. In order to call a $40 bet with our odds of about 19% we need to win over $200 when we hit, which means we need at least another $40 from the villain on the river. He may call an $40 bet when the club hits if he has a set or a striaght, but a lot of Aces are possible as well which will likely fold a club river.

#2: I think in general a high card is much better for firing a second barrel, but in this case "we have a gutshot" and likely overcards and i like a bet/fold to a big reraise. I'd consider a semibluff CRAI although I need to know the villain can fold TP in this situation. I think c/f is the best option besides b/f.

#3: fold. This is a nit with a clear set and we are drawing to a very non-obvious straight, but the spades will scare him away [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]. So we have only 6 outs = 12% equity which means we need a pot of $366 to call this bet. That's $202 on the river and our stack only has $163 left in it. We need him to call a shove (or at least a bet of about $120) when the 5 or T of spades hits to make this call

[Sciolist]

#1: Fold - we need to win too much on average on the river if we hit, and we only have seven clean outs. Too much of his range folds to our ~$45 bet on the river if we do hit a clean out, and if we hit a board pairing club, we could end up losing instead.

#2: Check Fold - We don't know if our A or Q is good if we hit, and we certainly don't have odds to draw to the K. The 3 didn't change anything so I don't like a second barrel here.

#3: Fold - We are assuming BB is an OK player? If so, BB only called flop because he wanted the bad player along. He didn't get it and now he wants to stop us getting a free card. This is because he has a set or small overpair. If we call the turn and hit, even if we stack him every time we lose money with this play.

[Badgerpoo]

#1. We're getting 3:1 to call, and make a flush 4:1. We need to make $40 on average when we hit to make a call break even. I think, coupled with the times that we are actually ahead and we win, a call is just about ok here. Any more than 1/2 pot I think you have to fold.

#2. If he 3 bets I usually fold with AQo, you can get into trouble with reverse implied odds here I reckon. Depends if he's been 3 betting me a lot.

I check fold that turn, but that's probably getting severely outplayed. Maybe I would double barrel a more favourable turn card.

#3. Fold to the bet, we probably only have 6 good outs usually as we either dont get value on the 5s or Ts, or get pwnd by the flush.

[josh_x]

I need to work on this, so thanks for the post.

1. We are ~4-1 to hit, he is offering us 3-1, so if we can expect to make $40 on the river then a call is +ev. I definately think we can and so folding is out. Hopefully the following math is correct in figuring out how often he needs to fold for a push to be +ev.

** I started to type up some stuff, but then realised something: If we are going to be at least calling the 40, then effectively the pot is already 160, right? so...

120 in the pot, 40 to call which i already will. So the pot is basically 160, i have 20% of that. So that means if he folds i win the 80% that wasn't mine, or $128. If he calls me then i get 20% of my push, + 20% of his call. Which is like losing 60% of the 'sidepot'. So...

(x*128) + (1-x)(0.6*-240)
= 128x +(1-x)(-144)
= 128x - 144 + 144x
144 = 272x
x = 0.52

So if he folds 52% of the time then a push is +ev compared to calling :s. I am really unsure if this is correct. If it is, there has to be a better way right?

that took too long, #2 later...

[Sciolist]

Actually, I am coming round to the idea of calling the turn in #1. He has a hand he wants to play, as evidenced by his flop check/raise. We may well only have seven outs though, but taken to an extreme, if we check/fold a board pairing club but bet 2/3 pot when we hit one of our seven outs, we will probably average enough to win with our play.

[Choparno]

1) I call. We're getting 3/1 on what is a 4/1 shot, and figure to make at least $40 on river if we hit. If he has a set and we only have 7 outs, that at least guarantees we get paid off if we hit on river I think. I don't like pushing because I don't think even a strong ace folds here often enough.

2) If I c-bet this flop I make it 16, not 12. C/f turn. These kind of players just don't give up enough with top pair or a draw IMO and we don't know that we have any more than 4 clean outs. If this player 3-bets PF, standard play is to fold and wait for a better spot. Occasionally 4-bet.

3) Fold. We're getting less than 3/1 on our draw. Against a nit there is no fold equity here I think so pushing is out of the question. Also, it may look to him like we're drawing to spades, so if we complete our draw with a spade we may not get paid anyway. OTOH, if this is true then it gives us 7 more outs to bluff with on the river, but the combined possibilities of either not getting paid off or a big bluff failing to work still makes this a turn fold for me.