(razz) thoughts on this tournament hand - Page 2

RustyBrooks · #1 10-13-2007, 11:11 AM

The problem with betting 6th is that I don't have a hand, and 6th almost has to have paired him for me to be ahead, and I still need a favorable river in that case. If he didn't fold 5th when my board turned all scary, I don't think he'd fold 6th.

Further, I was thinking that checking behind would induce a bluff on 7th if he does NOT have a 7, which I could pick off with 9 high, although hopefully I'll have something better. Actually I'm not sure if I could have called with 9 high.

If I bet 6th and I don't improve, aren't I committed to betting the river? That seems pretty dangerous given that if I'm not beat on 6th, I'm beat on 7th something like 1/3 of the time.

Also I think it's likely I avoided a check-raise on 6th. I probably would have check-raised with a 76 there in a cash game (not sure in a tournament, depends I guess)

I don't know. I can see the value in betting there but I already felt pretty awfully committed to the hand, had 1/3 of my chips in there. I wanted to be able to get out if things turned uglier but maybe that's a losing philosophy.

RustyBrooks · #2 10-13-2007, 11:15 AM

After some simulation it appears that if he has paired his 3, I'm a 3:1 favorite, and if he hasn't, and he has 2 wheel cards, then he's a 3:1 favorite. If he has 2 unpaired wheel cards, on the whole it's 50:50 but it's WA/WB. I'm not that familiar with how to deal with cases like that when you have been representing a big hand and you've gotten to 6th.

SGspecial · #3 10-13-2007, 11:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Bet sixth, but otherwise fine. I think capping the river is in order. Presumably, he needs a Six-low to jam with you, but you beat more of his possible Sixes than beat you.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, capping is completely out of order. Even if the villain is one of Rusty's favorite lagtards he is telling you this time I have you beat. He could be wrong of course with a worse 6, and maybe you have a 55/45 advantage over his range, but this isn't some shorthanded cash game. This is a MTT and putting in 1/4 of what's in front of you when you may be short stacked for that thin a value is a good way to send yourself to the rail.

Andy B · #4 10-13-2007, 11:37 AM

I'm assuming that you're not suggesting that Rusty shouldn't raise the river. Say that the other guy will cap with any Six and nothing else. He has one possible Six that beats Rusty, and two that don't. That's 2:1 against. Rusty has a choice between calling the three-bet and making it four bets. The other guy can't re-raise, so Rusty is giving even money on that one bet. Even if the other guy won't cap every time with his rougher Sixes, Rusty's got an edge, right?

And if Rusty blows this pot, he's kinda screwed whether he caps or not.

SGspecial · #5 10-15-2007, 02:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming that you're not suggesting that Rusty shouldn't raise the river. Say that the other guy will cap with any Six and nothing else. He has one possible Six that beats Rusty, and two that don't. That's 2:1 against. Rusty has a choice between calling the three-bet and making it four bets. The other guy can't re-raise, so Rusty is giving even money on that one bet. Even if the other guy won't cap every time with his rougher Sixes, Rusty's got an edge, right?

And if Rusty blows this pot, he's kinda screwed whether he caps or not.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, the first raise was standard, and in a cash game the cap is too.