$16 turbo is this totally standard, or totally terrible? - Page 3

WuTank · #21 07-05-2007, 01:42 PM

well I really meant that you cant get FE into your maths without getting real complex, so i mean its at least breakeven but is +cEV according how much FE you give.

WutRUTryin2Hit · #22 07-05-2007, 01:43 PM

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wutank,

I bet CO calls you here 75ish%.

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Thats a bit high and you would be surprised how often people limp/fold at 16s even that short, but it still isn't infrequent enough to jusitfy shoving here.

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I think 75% is almost exactly right. My initial instinct was that it was low, but you do see these guys fold now and then, but no, I think the odds of the shortstacked guy limp-folding here are like 25% yeah, I like the 75% number.

Odds of them BOTH folding is obv. less.

WutRUTryin2Hit · #23 07-05-2007, 01:44 PM

Oh yeah and as for is this a bad play.. yes. Very bad. This would be okay with a hand like KQ or something maybe where you have a lot of dead money if 1 guy calls and a decent amount of equity against whatever funny hand they call with, but with trash, this is a bad play.

WuTank · #24 07-05-2007, 01:53 PM

so if we calc our overall FE we get=25 % from co , 90% from BB,80% from UTG = 18% overall FE which makes this play +cEV imho.please comment on math now.

EnderFFX · #25 07-05-2007, 02:12 PM

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so if we calc our overall FE we get=25 % from co , 90% from BB,80% from UTG = 18% overall FE which makes this play +cEV imho.please comment on math now.

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I love how you get all this great advice from people, then you totally ignore that advice and tell people to comment on the math.

cEV is completely different then actual EV for the tournament. That is why this is a completely moronic play.

TruFloridaGator · #26 07-05-2007, 02:12 PM

Wow, I'm totally flabbergasted at the CO calling %. I think he calls closer to 90% based on what happened previous & his current stack. We all see some habitual limp/folders shorter than this but in a more random situation, he is almost always calling.

kyro · #27 07-05-2007, 02:40 PM

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so if we calc our overall FE we get=25 % from co , 90% from BB,80% from UTG = 18% overall FE which makes this play +cEV imho.please comment on math now.

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I'm not sure how you arrived at 18% FE being +EV.

CheeseMoney · #28 07-05-2007, 02:49 PM

WuTank has an impressive record at the 3.40s, but I think you may be underestimating limp/calling at the 16s.

kyro · #29 07-05-2007, 02:56 PM

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WuTank has an impressive record at the 3.40s, but I think you may be underestimating limp/calling at the 16s.

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My mom can beat the 3.40s and I'm pretty sure she wouldn't have a clue what any of this FE talk means. You can be a winner at microstakes and still completely misapply certain techniques.

It's like somebody doing a Stop N Go at completely the wrong time and place. I mean, they probably don't suck too bad because they understand vaguely the concept behind it, but if you are doing it wrong, it's hurting you.

WuTank · #30 07-05-2007, 05:30 PM

first of all it would be nice if you stop beeing so aggro kyro.Seriously thats so misplaced here.I really wanna have a constructive discussion here.Let me recap the situation:
The UTG player limped very much before and check/folded flop previously or folded to a raise.
Let assume he calls the shove in 10% of all cases , which is absoloutly optimistic,since i he limped with so many medicore before that I even think 5% is more realstic,but lets do it with 10%?
The Co is short yes, but he did fold before.So we can at least assume that there is some FE, in my thinking like 15% he is folding , or 85% he is calling.
The BB is with CL he is calling even tighter than UTG since he has a complete random hand here.If we assume he calls with 10%, thats a pretty wide range too.
So all in all the chances that all fold here are :
90% * 15% * 90%= 12,15% all in all FE, which is absoloute realistic here.
Now to our Equity.
I think we are most likely up here against CO.His range is so fricking wide.I think that 25% is on the tight end of his scale,since he can show up here with 87s or sth.
against a range of 25% our 95s has 34% Equity.
Since I assume there are 500 dead in the pot, we pay 900 to play for 1500, so we need like 37,5% Equity here, and the 3,5% diffrence we get from the FE.
Also i think that the $EV of this play is even bigger,since we eleminate 1 player,and get a not too big stack.

Please comment on this.