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#161
07-24-2007, 10:16 AM
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Re: $3 Million Downsizing.............
After reading this entire thread i can't conclude anything else than that the majority of the 2p2community are complete morons these days..
Personally i am very thankful for a high-stakes player like SBRugby to have a blog online that takes us for the amazing ride that is his life. Furthermore, he doesn't come across as the type of wannabe-celeb that updates his blog solely with the intention of feeding an applauding crowd, but to give (and perhaps gain) perspective of the highs and lows that is his professional career. He doesn't HAVE TO do this, as this thread is a perfect example of what kind of online bashing you expose yourself and your inner thoughts to, but yet he does (and i don't think he needs his job at cardrunners for the money [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] ). That i like. That being said, im not to say his actions and motives as he writes them down can't be discussed or frowned upon. And you will always have the haters, and the nutsackers (whom i don't think are usefull either). It just seems somewhat dissapointing to see the magnitude of this group opposed to the group that objectively discusses the content of his blogs rather than the person. I guess this all comes across a bit 'high&mighty', and i guess there is not much to do about that, but im somewhat disturbed about the rapid decline of the overall tone on 2p2 as i love and have loved this place over the past years and would hate to see its quality implode as fast as its quantity exlodes [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] 
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#162
07-24-2007, 10:29 AM
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Re: $3 Million Downsizing.............
"I want to stay on top for the forseeable future and I realize that there are going to be younger, hungrier, and smarter players that are going to come along and challenge me. I am going to need to constantly improve my game to stay ahead of these players (Just look at the big winners in the NLH games on FTP I am one of the oldest). I remain dedicated to studying and to keep learning the game even if I think I am the best because there will be others who come along who will challenge me. I will not let complacency or any of the aforementioned vices be my downfall."
This just shows that Brian certainly has an ego problem/ personality defect" The same basic defect that drives people like Michael Jordan. You don't get ridic good at stuff without really really really wanting to be the best. I'm not so sure that's a bad thing. There is so much stupid in this thread.
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#164
07-24-2007, 12:39 PM
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Re: $3 Million Downsizing.............
It should be very clear to anyone who has studied the math of bankroll management, risk-of-ruin, and variance that Townsend is well on his way to being effectively busto.
I follow Townsend's swings very closely, and his variance is is on an exponential curve upwards, and that can mean only one thing: ruin. He's not in control of his bankroll, his bankroll controls him. And it seems that he spends all his time on the biggest games in town, so it's pure variance, there's no steady income underneath. I don't think Brian is so foolhardy as to sell his mansion or loot his investments, so I think he'll retire from poker a well-off man. I think he should head for Wall Street. But as far as poker, it is very clear to me that he's on his way for the exit. Too bad, because he's a really nice guy, perhaps the nicest in poker today. But that's the way it goes when you shift from gambling as a job to gambling as a sport.
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#166
07-24-2007, 12:53 PM
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Re: $3 Million Downsizing.............
[ QUOTE ]
It should be very clear to anyone who has studied the math of bankroll management, risk-of-ruin, and variance that Townsend is well on his way to being effectively busto. [/ QUOTE ] Did you just string together these buzzwords randomly or do you have any idea what they actually mean? Your whole post makes no sense at all.
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#167
07-24-2007, 12:54 PM
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Re: $3 Million Downsizing.............
[ QUOTE ]
fl;asjdflaskfjaslfkjasdlfkjasdfklasd WOULD YOU INGRATES STOP POSTING THIS STUPID POP PSYCH NONSENSE IN THIS THREAD. [/ QUOTE ] i'm just glad i don't have the power of the banstick, jesus i could go on some sick tilt-induced banning sprees against these tards
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#168
07-24-2007, 01:00 PM
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Re: $3 Million Downsizing.............
[ QUOTE ]
It should be very clear to anyone who has studied the math of bankroll management, risk-of-ruin, and variance that Townsend is well on his way to being effectively busto. I follow Townsend's swings very closely, and his variance is is on an exponential curve upwards, and that can mean only one thing: ruin. He's not in control of his bankroll, his bankroll controls him. And it seems that he spends all his time on the biggest games in town, so it's pure variance, there's no steady income underneath. I don't think Brian is so foolhardy as to sell his mansion or loot his investments, so I think he'll retire from poker a well-off man. I think he should head for Wall Street. But as far as poker, it is very clear to me that he's on his way for the exit. Too bad, because he's a really nice guy, perhaps the nicest in poker today. But that's the way it goes when you shift from gambling as a job to gambling as a sport. [/ QUOTE ] ban, and on a side note some of the comments in this thread really make you understand why the majority of people on 2p2 are donators
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#170
07-24-2007, 01:37 PM
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Re: $3 Million Downsizing.............
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] It should be very clear to anyone who has studied the math of bankroll management, risk-of-ruin, and variance that Townsend is well on his way to being effectively busto. [/ QUOTE ] Did you just string together these buzzwords randomly or do you have any idea what they actually mean? Your whole post makes no sense at all. [/ QUOTE ] I have degrees from UCB in engineering, math, and computer science. I've been a professional financial trader for over 10 years. I've studied these concepts extensively, so to answer your question, yes, I think I know what I'm talking about. Variance is a measure of fluctuation from the mean in a stochastic process. If a player, even a winning player, does not well-manage his variance as he increases his $ velocity (the amount of money wagered per unit of time), the normal expectation is that he will at some point lose his entire roll. Brian's escalation of $ velocity and variance this year strike me as a pattern of ruin I've seen many times before in financial trading. If he continues like this, my guesstimate is that he will be bust by the end of the year. Unfortunately, the poker boom has created a lot of hero worship. People want people to win because they like them, or want to live vicariously through them, not because they are making sound risk decisions. Similarly, Brad Booth may or may not be busto, I don't know, but Sklansky's analysis was spot on. Extreme variance play at the table works for those whose bankrolls far exceed their opponents. So, long term, such play works for a Sammy Farha, who is worth perhaps $50M. But it doesn't work for a Brad Booth, who had at most $10M before he went into his horrible downswing earlier this year. Sorry you don't like math. But ultimately, the laws of mathematics rule the gambling world.
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