Current Skill You Are Developing

[Magic_Man]

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Have you ever had a person trained in statistics analyze your results? Do you yourself know how to perform a statistical test to verify whether the calibrations are better than random?

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LOL! You have to be kidding. Statistics say whatever you want them to say. Anyone trained in statistics will tell you that fact.

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1) To JohnG - I hope I have proved my point.

2) To Tom - that is something that people who don't understand statistics say. Have you ever even heard of the term "standard deviation"?

[ilya]

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James, my rating is over 1600.

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Any recommendations on picking up chess semi-seriously for the standard person who knows the basics but hasn't played since high school study hall and never really put much effort into true strategic chess thinking?

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If you have the patience for it, a great way to improve quickly is to solve sets of problems on your own, WITHOUT MOVING THE PIECES. Write down the answer, including all variations, before looking it up. Running through a lot of easy problems quickly is fine, but try to balance that with some hard ones (30+ mins to solve). doesn't really matter which book you use as long as you're just using it for problems. if you decide to read strategy books just stay away from american ones and you'll be fine. with some exceptions of course but you don't need to worry about those at this point. if you can find lisytsin's "strategy and tactics" book you'll be golden for a long time.

If you don't have the patience to study on your own, just play a lot of games, ideally against stronger players and with long time controls, 1hr/SD or more.

Studying openings is a waste of time at best IMO until you're at least a solid B player.

I am by no means the strongest player on these boards but I did get to 2180 USCF in my heyday.

as for skills, i'm trying to learn to sing better. it's not going well. but that's ok cos i get a huge kick out of singing anyway.

[Alobar]

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LOL! You have to be kidding. Statistics say whatever you want them to say. Anyone trained in statistics will tell you that fact.

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lol, this is the wrong forum to make such a gigantically ignorant statement in.


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Not one person here ever bets on their gut instinct...right? Not one person here has ever felt a table go cold...right?

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Sure lots of players here do. They are called losing players, and they are why this game is so profitable.


Anyway, its not worth arguing, its like arguing religion, you don't deal in facts and I don't deal in mumbo jumbo. I appreciate you taking the time to answer my questions. Even tho really I guess it's for your own personal gain, Youve got a product to push and as a simple google search on your name shows, you love to spam forums. Good luck in the future, I wish you all the best

[Big Poppa Smurf]

Alobar,

I'm sure lots of poker players make really good reads based on nothing but "gut instinct." If you haven't already, read Blink; many times those gut instincts are just you subconsciously realizing something you haven't consciously become aware of yet.

[john voight]

I pretty much rely 100% on gut instinct. I play nl .15/.30 and am fairly good at this stake.

I think my gut is comprised of all my knowledge, including mathematical %. So, while I rely 100% on gut, I guess that does not mean I rely 0% on math.

While I am no pro, I am def not a losing player. My sample is prolly 700k+ hands.

[Magic_Man]

Re: John Voight and Big Poppa -

You are both confusing the issue. Of course there are so-called "gut instinct" moves that people make, but that is because there is a legitimate reason for them. That is, some sort of visual or audible cue has made them feel uneasy. Or perhaps they are realizing something about betting patterns or bluffing probabilities without being fully aware of the process. But if you have two people back-to-back, out of audio contact, there are no "subconscious cues" to figure out what color card another person is holding (I'm assuming back-to-back doesn't literally mean touching backs). Anyone who claims otherwise is welcome to challenge me and collect a modest sum for a short time's work.

Please note something important here. Anyone who makes outrageous claims like this can prove them easily and with very little work, and collect fame and fortune by several means. The James Randi Educational Foundation has a standing offer of $1M for just such situations. Unfortunately, JREF has taken down their FAQ that had a great analogy to this effect, but I'll try to paraphrase:

Imagine a man that claims to play the violin beautifully and effortlessly. You, an eccentric billionaire, encounter him on the street telling someone about his skills, and offer a briefcase of ONE MILLION DOLLARS if he will simply play you a quick tune on the violin. Wouldn't it be a little suspicious if he refused your offer?

I don't have one million dollars, but I'm willing to accept any modest request for a prize to prove these skills. I hate to give you this advice, but if I were you, I would refuse my offer and go straight for the big guns, James Randi. He is quite well known in the media, has a bigger prize purse, and will bring you FAR greater INSTANT FAME AND FORTUNE. Here, I'll make it easy for you: http://www.randi.org . On the other hand, the application process is pretty lengthy, and you probably won't like his "scientific" tests. So if you prefer something simpler, let us know and we will set it up.

[Tom Vizzini]

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1) To JohnG - I hope I have proved my point.

2) To Tom - that is something that people who don't understand statistics say. Have you ever even heard of the term "standard deviation"?

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Ahhhh....now we have the excuse that I don't understand statistics. Clearly I have wasted my time here.

Real results means nothing to you.

Your loss.

Have fun

Tom

[guids]

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1) To JohnG - I hope I have proved my point.

2) To Tom - that is something that people who don't understand statistics say. Have you ever even heard of the term "standard deviation"?

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Ahhhh....now we have the excuse that I don't understand statistics. Clearly I have wasted my time here.

Real results means nothing to you.

Your loss.

Have fun

Tom

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Tom,

If you really want to sell your product, comming into a poker forum, where a lot of these kids make hundreds of thousands of dollars due to their understanding of statistics, damning short term results and how to apply everything, and saying "statistics dont matter, try being results oriented", is not a good way to go.

[Wilco23]

I'm trying to teach myself how to throw left-handed (obviously I'm a righty). I can throw a tennis ball and a nerf football pretty good, but a baseball and a football are harder. It's pretty funny to try because it's sooooooo awkward.

[Magic_Man]

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1) To JohnG - I hope I have proved my point.

2) To Tom - that is something that people who don't understand statistics say. Have you ever even heard of the term "standard deviation"?

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Ahhhh....now we have the excuse that I don't understand statistics. Clearly I have wasted my time here.

Real results means nothing to you.

Your loss.

Have fun

Tom

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Real results mean quite a bit to me, and the rest of us, if they are statistically significant. In fact, they probably mean a great deal more to us because of this very fact. Rest assured, what you are describing is HIGHLY statistically significant, so it means a lot to me, and quite a few other people. So are you going to seek instant fame and fortune?