trade idea on homebuilder stocks

[pig4bill]

Yeah, ignore that September's drop in sales is the highest on record. Forget that the CEO of Toll Brothers said it would be at LEAST the middle of 2008 before a bottom. What do those homebuilder CEO's know anyhow?

[kimchi]

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Yeah, ignore that September's drop in sales is the highest on record. Forget that the CEO of Toll Brothers said it would be at LEAST the middle of 2008 before a bottom. What do those homebuilder CEO's know anyhow?

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Did you read my OP?

If the stock continues to fall, there are many opportunities from the short side. If the stock turns around, I believe there will be huge potential after the panic selling and I made a suggestion whereby a position could be built to take advantage of this.

Besides, if plc CEOs and analysts etc. know anything of value, I can guarantee that information will appear on the chart before it appears in the WSJ, CNBC, or wherever you get your information.

Like I've said a few times now, I'm discounting fundamental data and suggesting a speculative play with suitable trade management.

[pig4bill]

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Besides, if plc CEOs and analysts etc. know anything of value, I can guarantee that information will appear on the chart before it appears in the WSJ, CNBC, or wherever you get your information.

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No kidding. It has been on the charts. Just look at them.

You sound like a lot of T/A newbies. You think T/A is the tail that wags the fundamental dog, when it's the other way round. T/A can be a good measure of psychological effect in the ABSENCE of news. There's no absence of news in the homebuilder industry. There will be tradeable blips like this past week, but investing longterm and ignoring fundamentals, especially ones that indicate a company may not survive, is not wise.

http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/...e-homebuilders

[whyherro]

This is probably a pretty terrible industry to trade on T/A. The homebuilders should trade at about the underlying value of their property and developments under construction. This is relatively quantifiable and the industry is not complex / difficult to understand.

[kimchi]

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Besides, if plc CEOs and analysts etc. know anything of value, I can guarantee that information will appear on the chart before it appears in the WSJ, CNBC, or wherever you get your information.

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No kidding. It has been on the charts. Just look at them.

You sound like a lot of T/A newbies. You think T/A is the tail that wags the fundamental dog, when it's the other way round. T/A can be a good measure of psychological effect in the ABSENCE of news. There's no absence of news in the homebuilder industry. There will be tradeable blips like this past week, but investing longterm and ignoring fundamentals, especially ones that indicate a company may not survive, is not wise.

http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/...e-homebuilders

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It really sounds like you haven't yet read my OP, nor my other reply to you in which I also asked whether you read my OP.....
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This stock is currently only suitable for shorter-term shorting (IMO)

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Why is that article on bottom fishing and contrarian investing relevant to my situation? I never said anything about bottom fishing, investing, or contrarian positions in my OP. If the long-term down-trend doesn't reverse, then there will be no confirmation after which a long position can be made. If the down-trend continues, then trading from the short-side is the lower-risk strategy (as I quoted above). I've never looked for tops or bottoms.

You say investing long-term isn't wise. When did I say anything about investing long-term?

If you have any comments about the basic methodology I outlined whereby a suitable entry can be found for a longer-term trade (not an investment) in an uptrending market (not bottom fishing) with tight risk management, then I'd be interested to hear your views as it's a strategy I haven't used before.