Hand.,.

krishan · #1 04-17-2006, 02:35 PM

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG caps, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, Button folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: (10.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 12.75 BB

Villain is tough as hell. Thoughts?

Krishan

kevc4 · #2 04-17-2006, 02:37 PM

when i have jj i always run into a pocket overpair

The Funky Llama · #3 04-17-2006, 02:37 PM

I like calling the flop with the intention of calling down and betting when checked to. If you are ahead villain has AK (or possibly AQs?) so protection against 3rd guy isn't necessary (overlapping outs). If villain has AK you will get a river bet from him most of the time anyway if you just call. If you raised he will probably fold AK on the river knowing that you wouldn't bet AK/AQ. So you get the most value out of AK by calling.

Jeffage · #4 04-17-2006, 02:46 PM

Standard. Who cares if he's tough? He's capable of having a payoff hand here quite easily (an ace, possibly 7's, 8's, 9's, etc). It's also clear that he's not going to raise the river (most likely) bc he would have on the turn. So even if he has QQ (and poss KK who knows), you won't be raised. Yet if you bet, there is a decent chance he calls with worse. So (imo) the bet has clear value.

Who was it btw?

Jeff

The Bryce · #5 04-17-2006, 02:49 PM

If tough as hell means he caps light a lot then you should raise. If tough as hell just means "normal" capping standards and smart then you should call down.

Edit: There's a third guy in the pot? What a tit. You have to raise, then.

krishan · #6 04-17-2006, 02:49 PM

artofpoker

Grisgra · #7 04-17-2006, 03:07 PM

Everything seems obvious except for the river bet. If the villain is tough as hell I don't see him capping preflop with less than AQ/88, and AA puts more bets in postflop.

If he's tough as hell I don't know that he calls the turn or river with his AK, but seems 50-50. I also don't know he calls all the way with 88/99, but also seems quite possible.

QQ or KK calls down 100% of the time, of course.

I think this seems tough because it is -- QQ and KK play it this way and call down exactly this way (maybe a little more money in with KK), while 88, 99, AK, AQ play it this way only some of the time, call down all the way only some of the time. But there's more combos there, of course.

Smells like QQ to me, but only because QQ plays it exactly like this almost 100% of the time.

In other words . . . it doesn't matter whether you bet the river or not, it's neutral EV IMHO. So stop worryin'.

PS You didn't tell us what he thought of YOU. If he thinks you're tough as hell he's not going to put you on betting to the river with AK.

PPS Obviously, a chop with JJ goes exactly like this as well.

The Funky Llama · #8 04-17-2006, 03:11 PM

I am curious as to why you think the flop raise is standard. The more I think about it, the stronger I feel that a call is correct if we cannot fold (by at least the turn) if he 3bets us and if we assume that he is more likely to put a river bet in with AK if we just call.

The Bryce · #9 04-17-2006, 03:17 PM

Your post about overlappign outs is interesting.

Considering the pot size with the third player in pre-flop it may be best to peel the flop and pop UTG's turn bet. We won't ever suffer a re-bluff and blah blah, one bet versus river street.

The Funky Llama · #10 04-17-2006, 03:19 PM

I think raising the turn is a lot worse than raising the flop. I dont see why you are worried about the 3rd player at all. If we are ahead, he probably has at most 3 outs and possibly 0. And there is a pretty good chance we are not even ahead.